Take pandemic threat seriously, conference warned

As the world inches closer to an influenza pandemic, experts from all over the world meeting in Malta were yesterday warned that the threat was not to be taken lightly and that adopting an "ostrich policy" was not an option.

The World Health Organisation's scientist in charge of influenza control, Klaus Stöhr, told the Second European Influenza Conference that "we cannot close our eyes and hope for the best".

He stressed that it was time for countries to enhance pandemic preparedness plans according to their priorities and means.

Yesterday, experts gathered at the InterContinental Hotel in St Julians for the start of the biannual conference organised by the European Scientific Working Group on Influenza (ESWI). It will go on until Wednesday with influenza pandemic very high on the agenda.

Speaking at the opening, ESWI chairman Ab Osterhaus said the conference aimed to reduce the impact of influenza among the European population.

He said the conference was taking place at a time when the H5N1 virus - which experts believe could be the one to cause the next pandemic - was still causing problems in southeast Asia, and added that Europe was very worried about this.

Dr Stöhr too stressed that the meeting was taking place at a very crucial time, when a highly pathogenic virus was spreading. However, he said, experts had the advantage of having started their work before the pandemic has broken out.

The influenza did not respect borders, he said, which made it even more essential for countries to have their pandemic preparedness plan in hand and ready to be put into action. To date, only around 50 countries had a preparedness plan and very few had made it into a legally binding document.

He said it would only take around three months from the start of the pandemic for the virus to spread globally and during this time there would not be any available vaccines against it, or only an insignificant amount.

With regard to antivirals, Dr Stöhr said countries where their use was a priority were urged by WHO to stockpile. Twenty-five countries had established national stockpiles.

A few months ago, the Maltese Health Ministry announced that it had ordered antiviral doses for 25 per cent of the population as well as vaccine doses for around 90 per cent.

The WHO expert said the organisation was in the process of stockpiling antiviral doses, which it would use to try and stop the pandemic virus at its source.

From an economic point of view, Dr Stöhr said a pandemic could cause "considerable damage". He reminded those present that Sars had had a high impact on tourism in affected countries.

Earlier on, during a satellite symposium organised by pharmaceutical company Solvay as part of the conference, Robert Webster, from St Jude's Children Research Hospital in the United States, echoed the warning that the influenza pandemic was not something that could be taken lightly.

He pointed out that influenza has been around throughout recorded history. Although the H5N1 virus might not be successful in causing the next pandemic, "we had better be careful".

Dr Webster said millions of people could die if the influenza pandemic affected up to 35 per cent of the world's population.

His warnings that the H5N1 virus could potentially cause the next pandemic were reiterated by Jeroen Medema, from Solvay Pharmaceuticals, who said the virus was "an imminent pandemic threat".

Meanwhile, the chairman of the Asia-Pacific Advisory Committee, Lance Jennings, said he did not exclude the closure of borders of New Zealand and Australia during a pandemic.

He also spoke about the importance of trying to extinguish the virus at its source once it had mutated and started spreading easily from person to person.