The Cyprus problem: end game?

This piece was written when the negotiations between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots on a possible solution of the Cyprus Problem were just beginning to rev up. If all goes well in these negotiations, Cyprus might enter the EU on May 1 as a united country after 30 years of partition.

The current round of negotiations started on Thursday following a "constructive" one at UN headquarters in New York a week before. The negotiations are taking place in the disused Nicosia international airport, which ended up in the "no man's land" separating the two communities following the 1974 Turkish invasion and partition of the island.

But what are the chances that a solution will be found? The simple answer is "much better than at any time during the past 30 years". The Turkish Cypriot community is split and the near-unanimous support once enjoyed by its leader, Rauf Denktash, is history.

Denktash is reported to be optimistic that a solution could be worked out on the basis of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's Plan, which according to the same Denktash has been much improved since first being submitted in late 2002.

The Turkish Cypriot Prime Minister and Denktash's opponent, Mehmet Ali Talat, believes that a solution will be found before May 1. Talat has campaigned for a solution to allow Turkish Cypriots to join the EU together with the Greek Cypriots. It was his campaign that halved Denktash's support in last December's elections in Northern Cyprus.

Meanwhile, Turkey badly wants a solution, certainly before the year's end when the EU is expected to decide, whether to begin membership negotiations with it. The EU has repeatedly made it clear that Turkey's membership ambitions depend on progress being made on the Cyprus Problem.

But when this line is repeated by the likes of Commissioner Guenther Verheugen, Ankara goes red with rage. To add to Turkey's woes, Germany is split down the middle on allowing membership negotiations to begin with Turkey.

In a bit of German politicking, most probably concocted for home consumption, German Opposition leader Angela Merkel flew to Turkey last Monday offering the Turks a 'Special Partnership' with the EU. Ankara rejected the proposal outright.

What Ankara does not need at this moment is to have the Cyprus Problem hanging round its neck. Just to underline the point, not only have several Turkish Government ministers and the Prime Minister been speaking favourably of the need to solve the Cyprus problem for some time, but other influential representatives of Turkish society are being roped in to join the chorus.

The Anadolu news agency quoted Omer Sabanci, chairman of the Turkish Industrialists' and Business Association, as saying that "paving the way for a solution to the Cyprus problem is pleasing". Sabanci hails from one of Turkey's richest and most influential business clans.

Greece, which supports the Greek Cypriots, has also been seeking to pacify its relations with Turkey and therefore it would welcome a solution to the Cyprus Problem. Last October, Turkish Foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, paid his first official visit to Athens and bilateral relations have slowly begun to mellow.

George Papandreou, leader of the Greek Socialists PASOK, promised while on the campaign trail last Thursday that if he is elected to govern Greece on March 7, he will continue to consolidate relations with Turkey.

He also proposed that the two countries could embark on a gradual, matching reduction of arms spending. The next day Turkish Foreign Minister Gul complimented Papandreou on his "good proposal". But Papandreou's commendable initiative may yet fall foul of NATO's spending plans for its members.

The other player, the EU, has always favoured a solution but now that Cyprus will be joining it in a couple of months' time, it desires it even more intensely. The United States has consistently favoured a solution and so has the UN.

Britain, the other guarantor of the Cypriot constitution together with Greece and Turkey, and which has military bases on the island, wants the problem resolved.

The interests of all parties involved in the Cyprus conflict seem to converge. And, with all these heavyweights breathing down the Cypriots' necks, it is impossible to think that the latter will not sign up to an agreement. But, politics being the art of the possible, or should we say the impossible, may yet see the "possible" turned into an impossible.

Following his first direct two-hour encounter with Mr Denktash last Thursday in the presence of UN Representative Alvaro de Soto, Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos claimed that most of the issues raised by the Turkish side were outside the plan submitted by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

He added that anything could happen and that "one issue may not be solved and thus ruin the rest". The same concerns were repeated by Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister George Iacovou. This was said despite De Soto's admonition that both sides keep mum on what went on in the negotiations.

De Soto, on the other hand, was more upbeat, reporting that the first round "went well" and that after their meeting, both Denktash and Papadopoulos met EU enlargement Commissioner Verheugen, who explained the Commission's role in helping UN efforts to reach a solution.

The Cyprus News Agency reported Verheugen to have flown out of Nicosia on his way to Brussels in a very optimistic mood that a solution will be found. The international community can only wait in expectance.

The Cypriot negotiations are going on intensely and daily. The two sides have up to March 22 to reach agreement. If they do not, Mr Annan will convene a meeting of the two sides, along with Greece and Turkey, and try to reach agreement by March 29. The ultimate aim is for the Greek and Turkish Cypriots to vote in two separate referenda on the agreement in April, which if approved will seal the issue.