The Cyprus referendum and the EU

"I call upon you to reject the Annan Plan. I call upon you to say a resounding No on April 24. I call upon you to defend your dignity, your history and what is right. With a sense of responsibility towards history, towards the present and future of Cyprus and of our people, I ask you not to mortgage your future to Turkey's political will. I urge you to defend the Republic of Cyprus, to say No to its abolition, and to rally together for a new and more hopeful course for the reunification of our country through the European Union."

It was with that emotional flourish that Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos ended his address to the Cypriot people on April 7. He reached his conclusion rationally and despite heavy international pressure. United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan, who worked hard to solve the 30-year-old dispute between the Greek and Turkish communities, warned that the referendum offered a choice between his plan and no plan, because there was no alternative on offer. Leaders of the Council of Europe and of the United States similarly urged Cypriots to approve the plan.

The Commission of the European Union went so far as to publish a communication on April 7 declaring its readiness to adapt the terms of the accession of Cyprus "with a view to welcoming a united island on May 1, 2004". But, it added, "such reunification will only be possible if both the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities approve the comprehensive settlement presented by the United Nations at the separate referenda scheduled for April 24". It is also offering the incentives. Last Thursday the EU Commission organised a donors' conference with the aim of finding ways to finance the needs arising from the Annan Plan.

The two communities are themselves divided. In the Greek Cypriot camp, Papadopoulos' call for a No vote is supported by most of the parties on the left of the political spectrum. Parties on the right tend to favour a Yes vote. On the Turkish Cypriot side, traditional leader Rauf Denktash has called for a No vote, but Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat favours a Yes. For some time now, public opinion polls have indicated the likelihood of a No majority among Greek Cypriots and a Yes majority among Turkish Cypriots.

Problem unsolved

The problem with the Cyprus situation lies in its very origin. In 1974 Turkey invaded the independent republic of Cyprus and left its occupying forces in the northern part; there are at present some 30,000 Turkish troops there. The northern part proclaimed its independence, but has been recognised as a sovereign state only by Turkey. Following the invasion, thousands of people were forcibly displaced, many of them losing their property. Many Turks from mainland Turkey settled in the northern part of Cyprus.

At present, there are more than 600,000 Greek Cypriots in the Republic of Cyprus in the south, and fewer than 200,000 Turkish Cypriots in the northern statelet. The gross domestic product per inhabitant is about four times as high in the south as in the north. The island remains divided and everybody favours its reunification. The question is how and on what conditions. Since 1974 the UN has tried several times to mediate in the dispute. The latest plan has given rise to successive versions and on Saturday Cypriots will vote on the fifth version of the Annan Plan.

In the meantime, the Republic of Cyprus has successfully negotiated its accession to the EU. Whatever happens, it will join on May 1. The accession process has accelerated the dynamics of negotiations for reunification. The current EU member states prefer to see a united Cyprus acceding to the Union and have been ready to make the Annan Plan compatible with the acquis communautaire, though by approving generous transitional periods, rather than by permanent derogations, as the Turks would have peferred.

In essence, the Annan Plan provides for a United Cyprus Republic as a single sovereign state with a federal government and two equal constituent states of Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots. Following the Swiss model, the federal government would be responsible for external relations, relations with the EU, the Central Bank, federal finances, communications, aviation, citizenship and natural resources. The constituent states would be competent for tourism, environmental protection, energy, agriculture, fisheries, industry, commerce, education, health and social security.

The constituent states would participate in the formulation of policy on external and EU affairs. The federal parliament would be made of two chambers, each composed of Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Executive power would be vested in a Presidentail Council with six members - four Greek and two Turkish Cypriots. In case of reunification, elections at the federal and constituent state levels would take place on June 13, along with those for the European Parliament.

EU arrangements

But the devil is in the detail. Disagreements persist on issues of numbers, dates and conditions for changes envisaged in the Annan Plan. They include the extent of the area to be transferred from the present northern part to the future Greek Cypriot constituent state; the reduction of Turkish troops in the northern part; the return of Turkish settlers to Turkey; the return of displaced Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to their original homes; the ability of richer Greek Cypriots to buy property in the poorer north, and others.

The Annan Plan restricts the number of Greek Cypriots who can settle in the north, and vice-versa. This goes against the freedom of movement of persons required by EU law. But the EU has agreed that the right of Cypriot citizens to reside in the other constituent state may be restricted for up to 19 years. The right of Greek and Turkish citizens to reside in Cyprus may also be restricted for a similar period. In addition, Turkish will become an official EU language.

Another provision of the Annan Plan allows the Turkish constituent state to impose conditions on the acquisition of immovable property by non-Turkish Cypriots. This would go against the EU requirement of freedom of movement of capital, except that the EU is now proposing to allow these restrictions for a transitional period of 15 years. It also proposes to negotiate with Turkey every six months rules on special entry and residence rights for Turkish nationals compatible with Cyprus' participation in the Schengen area.

The Annan Plan failed to give all the guarantees required by the Greek Cypriots. If the plan is approved, the Turkish community would gain all its advantages immediately, but there is no certainty that the resulting treaty would be ratified by the Turkish parliament before the agreement is implemented. Moreover, the Turkish Cypriot constituent state would be immediately recognised, thus seeming to legitimise ex post the 1974 invasion; but the Greek Cypriot achievements "are postponed without guarantees and depend on the good will of Turkey to fulfil its obligations. In other words, we buy hope and all we get in return is the hoped-for good will of the Turkish side to honour the agreement", President Papadopoulos said.

He added: "The permanent stationing of even a small number of Turkish troops in Cyprus, with extended rights to intervene in the Greek Cypriot state and with no mechanism of guarantee, while we would have disbanded the national guard, creates conditions of insecurity for Greek Cypriots".

And concluded: "The Annan Plan does not abolish the de facto division but legalises and deepens it. The real question is whether the plan brings about reunification or whether it perpetuates division and, what is more, with our consent and signature. The plan promotes the permanent division of our country with restrictions on movement, settlement, the right to acquire property, the exercise of political rights and other divisive elements."

These restrictions go to the very heart of Cypriot sovereignty. Papadopoulos said: "When I took up my duties, I was given an internationally recognised state. I shall not give back a mere 'community' without a say internationally and in search of a tutor." What is worse, the Greek Cypriot side is being asked to make sacrifices after it achieved its major aim of bringing Cyprus to the threshold of the EU, a task which itself required many sacrifices.

So the common sense question that arises is - Why should we? Or as Papadopoulos put it more eloquently: "If the sovereign people reject the Annan Plan by their vote, the Republic of Cyprus will become a full and equal member of the European Union. We would have achieved the strategic goal we have jointly set, that is, to upgrade and shield politically the Republic of Cyprus... Turkey's accession course will also continue."

For as everybody knows, the result of the Cyprus referendum on Saturday will have repercussions on Turkey's membership of the EU. But that is another story.