The decline in fertility

In demographic "forecasting", fertility trends are considered the main determinant of future populations in developed countries. In working out different scenarios of the local population, fertility assumptions, more than mortality or migration factors, determine the results of such exercises.

Fertility trends are becoming increasingly significant in our demography. The latest report compiled by the Department of Health Information of the Ministry of Health provides an interesting and detailed profile of the total births recorded in the Maltese islands during 2004. More detailed information on the demographic events of last year will be included in the Demographic Review which will be published by the National Statistics Office later on in the year.

According to this report, which covers all births taking place in Malta and Gozo to all mothers irrespective of their nationality, deliveries in 2004 have been the lowest since 1999 when this document was first published. During the year, a total of 3,838 deliveries were recorded compared with 3,995 in 2003. There were 14 deliveries that occurred underwater.

These deliveries resulted in 3,902 births against 4,054 a year earlier. Fifty women gave birth to twins; four had triplets while there were two cases of quadruplets. Of the 3,902 births, 269 (6.9 per cent) occurred in Gozo.

The maternal lifestyles of mothers indicate that smoking habits and the regular consumption of alcohol during pregnancy is limited. Only seven per cent of mothers who gave birth during 2004 were reported to smoke one or more cigarettes per day while none drank alcohol regularly. In 2004, there were 12 cases of mothers who were drug abusers compared to eight cases in 2003.

Just over half of deliveries occurred to mothers who had no previous children. For a third of mothers who gave birth during 2004, it was their second child. In 55 cases, the newly-born child was the fifth or more by birth order of the mother.

The modal age group of mothers who gave birth during 2004 remained the 25-29 age group with 37 per cent of all deliveries occurring to mothers in this age-group. There were five deliveries to mothers under 15 years of age with the youngest aged 14, 85 deliveries to mothers aged 40-44 and four deliveries to mothers over 45 years of age with a maximum age of 46 at delivery.

Deliveries to never married mothers edged up on last year and accounted for 697 (18 per cent) of all deliveries, of which 649 were in respect of Maltese single mothers. This means that 18.2 per cent of deliveries occurring to Maltese mothers were delivered by women who have never been married. On a very positive note: nearly all these mothers were reported as having support at home to raise the infant.

In regard to births occurring to women of Maltese nationality these totaled 3,605 while 152 births were registered in respect of women of other nationalities. As usual, more boys (52 per cent) than girls were born in 2004, compared to 51 per cent in the previous year.

The distribution of the birth weight of babies was basically similar to that reported last year with 40.1 per cent of babies (43.5 per cent in 2003) weighing 3000-3499g. The average birth weight was 3213g in 2004 against 3202g in 2003.

Having said so much on the birth profile of our population last year one may make three general observations. From a demographic viewpoint, the total fertility rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children who would be born to women, if they were to experience the age-specific fertility rates of the base year throughout their reproduction or childbearing period, is lower than the previous year.

A TFR of about 2.1 is referred to as the index for population replacement level. That does not mean that the population is not increasing. It means that, if the TFR stays below 2.1 for a long time and assuming nil migration, the population will eventually fall short of replacement level.

Take the case of Italy. For more than 25 years, Italy's TFR was below the 2.1 level. It was, however, towards the mid-1990s that the country experienced an excess of deaths over births. Since then, this demographic indicator retained its negative aspect.

In the case of Malta, the demographic transition was virtually completed by 1975 but the TFR stood at 2.1 or over until the early 1990s.

Thereafter, it started to register notable drops. In 1995, it came down to 1.83 but a dramatic fall in TFR occurred during 1999-2002 when it touched a level of 1.45. Last year, it declined to an all-time low of 1.34.

The latest information on the TFR of European countries confirms that in several countries the rate has been estimated at 1.3 or less in 2002. On average, the TFR of member states of the Council of Europe stood at 1.5 in that year.

Another important indicator emerging from the report is the increase in the proportion of births to never married women. It has now reached 18.2 per cent in the case of Maltese women giving birth during 2004. Although this ratio is still low when compared to the proportion of extra marital births in other countries like Latvia (44.2 per cent), Sweden (56 per cent) and Iceland (63.6 per cent), it has been increasing at a fast pace over the last decade.

A third observation concerns the reported smoking habits of mothers who gave birth in 2004. Although percentage wise, seven per cent of mothers were reported to smoke, this proportion was double that during the previous year when only 3.1 per cent of mothers were reported to smoke. One has, however, to make more observations before drawing any conclusions.

The traditional male/female ratio of births has been maintained. There were 2,019 male births against 1,883 of females compared to 2,061 male births and 1,993 female births in 2003.

This, notwithstanding, the aggressive campaign for gender equality still goes on!

Mr Camilleri is the chairman of the Malta Statistics Authority.