Last week’s US presidential election gave a very clear mandate to Donald Trump, with a strong majority in the popular vote. Congress will also be controlled by the Republicans, with many senators and members of the House of Representatives having been personally endorsed by Trump. In the Supreme Court, the conservatives have a 6-3 majority over the progressives. All this is bound to bring significant changes to the policies of the US across the board, including the economy.
I have read several analyses of these results written by Europeans, predicting doom and gloom. I believe such analyses are just a useless academic exercise as Europe (and I mean the EU by Europe) needs to look at itself rather than at the US.
French President Emmanuel Macron put it very aptly when he stated that Europe needs to take back control. At a meeting in Budapest he went further by saying that Europe needs to write its own history, “and we have the strength to write it”.
The other option is to be prey to Russia’s aggressiveness towards its neighbouring countries, China’s trade policies and the drive of Trump to “make America great again”.
One can understand the insistence of Europe to pursue peace, at all costs, and to have a good management of the economy. These were the issues that plagued Europe in the first half of the 20th century.
In the meantime, the world evolved, also thanks to the benefits brought about by the EU. This has created aspirations among the middle and working classes, and we need to respond to such aspirations.
The EU cannot be a bystander; it needs to be a key protagonist
We need to develop a new vision of the future, where the EU really plays a leading role in the world. This takes me straight to where I would like the EU to be.
First and foremost, EU member states need to act in unison when the Union is dealing with other world powers, be it the US, Russia, China or whoever. Each member state, even the larger ones, are too small next to these three large countries. If the EU acts as one, then we will stand a good chance to write our own history.
Considering the way in which the global political situation is likely to develop, there will be opportunities for the EU to forge new alliances. Today, for countries like China and India, we are just a market, ready to be eaten up.
If the US does impose the trade tariffs, which Trump has said he will, China and India can become the EU’s partners. If one adds to this equation the role China has played in Africa and its increasing influence there, then we can have a very different situation than what we have today. The UK will also be wanting to forge new partnerships in this new world, and Europe should seize such an opportunity.
Although the EU, and the eurozone in particular, does need good economic governance, the politics of austerity needs to be revisited. We have tried it and it did not really work because it stifled growth. I do not believe we should have a fiscal policy across the EU where public debt soars, but we need to admit that if we want to achieve a moderate level of economic growth, this cannot be achieved through economic austerity.
Only time will tell how each and every economic sector will be affected by the changes in the US and the stance adopted by China and Russia in the new global scenario. What is certain is that the EU cannot be a bystander; it needs to be a key protagonist.
This reminds me of the poem Invictus, which was often cited by president Nelson Mandela: “I am the master of my fate, I am the captain of my soul.”