A lot of sports betting is based on mathematics. It’s far less about liking x team more than y team because one team has better players than the other. The basis of sports betting is odds, which are math, and we’re always trying to get the best price (odds) on our wagers.
Fortunately, the math behind sports betting isn’t overly complicated. At least, in most cases. Some sports betting formulas are used by many, including oddsmakers and bettors alike, but the basics are relatively simple.
Nowadays, you can find betting guides that can provide strategies and explain in a straightforward way to understand how odds work in sports betting.
How is math used in sports betting?
There can be many complex algorithms in sports betting markets, but bettors just need to know the fundamentals of getting started and evaluating their probabilities when wagering on sports.
Things can get more advanced later on, but learning how to calculate odds and convert odds probability is a vital first step for new bettors.
Converting odds to probabilities
Let’s look at the most basic form of sports betting math, breakeven percentage. If you’re betting with the standard -110 American odds, then your breakeven percentage or the percentage of bets you need to win to break even on your bets is 52.4 per cent.
The calculating of breakeven percentage is simple. We will do so using -110 American odds or moneyline odds to show how we got to the breakeven percentage of 52.4 per cent.
The formula is as simple as 100/odds. If we look at our standard odds bet at -110, for example, our equation would be 100/110, which equals 0.909. From there, we convert this number from a decimal to a percentage at 91 per cent. This represents the amount (in percentage form) our wager will return on a winning bet.
However, to calculate the breakeven percentage, we can round up our decimal to 0.91 and add a +1 to get 1.91. If we take 110*1.91, we can calculate our return on a winning wager, $210. This includes the amount we risked $110 and our profits $100.
Finally, we can take our return on the above wager and divide it by the -110 odds in decimal format, 1.91. 100/1.91 = 52.35, which is rounded up to 52.4 per cent.
We have now calculated our odds into probabilities, giving us a breakeven percentage for standard wagers and the likelihood for a -110 bet. The math above can be replicated for any wager amount and odds.
Betting odds algorithms
Sports betting formulas can get much more advanced than the above example. Sportsbooks worldwide use sports betting algorithms to formulate and adjust their odds, both in pre-match or pre-game markets and live betting.
These algorithms are incredibly complicated and weigh a variety of factors, including statistical models based on the teams, coaches, and players, and allow odds-makers to input changes on-the-fly, in the case of in-play markets.
However, even with dedicated teams devoted to oddsmaking, sharp bettors are always ahead of the odds markets curve.
Creating your statistical model is difficult but can be a worthwhile pursuit, but a challenging task. If you manage to create one that can beat market-making sportsbooks, then you will be rich!
Final thoughts
Bettors don’t need a vast understanding of mathematics to become profitable sports bettors. Creating a model that beats the sportsbook’s algorithms is the ultimate goal, but that isn’t attainable for most.
New bettors simply need to understand where they stand. Understanding basic probabilities and how to convert odds is an excellent first step that the vast majority of those who bet on sports never learn.
From there, spotting value in betting markets becomes far easier. When you add inline shopping and taking advantage of bonuses and promotions, you are well on your way to becoming a profitable sports bettor.
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