The political implosion that has afflicted the Nationalist Party has been almost 10 years in its gestation. The party has been demoralised and deeply divided since before Lawrence Gonzi’s downfall in 2013. The seeds of destruction were sown when GonziPN won power five years earlier by just over one thousand votes.
In 2013, under Gonzi’s leadership, and in the 2017 general election under Simon Busuttil’s, that tiny majority was reversed by a massive 30,000 votes – the largest two margins of defeat in Malta’s democratic history.
As I submit this column before a possible executive committee meeting that might resolve the PN parliamentary party’s rebellion against its leader, it seems that it’s only a matter of time before Adrian Delia departs from the PN leadership post he has held so precariously for the last two years.
PN was once an uneasy coalition between the aspirational working class and what passes in Malta as the entitled, bourgeois class. Today, that alliance is broken. Their beleaguered leader, who was elected by a large popular vote of disaffected members revolting against a succession of leaders imposed by the party establishment, is refusing to leave his post.
Although the parallel is not exact, I cannot help drawing a comparison with the state of Corbyn’s Labour Party in the United Kingdom today. His populist election proved that it makes no sense to give total control to party members in the electoral process. A leader who does not command the confidence of his own parliamentary colleagues is not a viable leader of the Opposition. Nor is he likely ever to become prime minister. It is clear from the uprising against Delia that this stubborn political fact has been recognised.
The upshot of Corbyn’s election as leader was the heavy defeat inflicted on his party in the recent UK elections. It bears a close parallel with the electoral drubbing dished out to Delia in the European Parliamentary and Local Council elections in May last year.
The great party of Nerik Mizzi, George Borg Olivier and Eddie Fenech Adami has lost its way. A party that has had three leaders in the last ten years finds itself in a bind reminiscent of the situation facing the Malta Labour Party after it had exhausted the energy of Dom Mintoff, Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici and Alfred Sant.
Can PN find somebody who is clever, cunning and forensic, as well as a serious and decent man, who would restore dignity to being a Nationalist supporter and be a credible alternative prime minister?
The collapse of PN is both a parable of what can go wrong when a party is culturally divided between the majority of voting members and those who feel they have an inalienable right to decide who leads it, and a tragedy.
The imperative now is to find a new leader
It’s a tragedy because what was formerly a hegemonic, once-great Christian democratic party in Malta and Gozo is now little more than a financially bankrupt, politically hollow shell. And for that calamity, blame rests with those who came before Delia and brought it low in 2013 and 2017.
The recent political earthquake in Malta’s post-Independence history has been marked by an extraordinary silence from the official parliamentary Opposition. The Nationalist Party has been mute, inward-looking and ineffectual.
By contrast, in the first weeks of the new prime minister’s administration, Robert Abela appears to have captured the imagination of the electorate by his calm, confident and firm grip on the levers of government. The recent opinion poll survey in Malta Today which gave Delia his lowest ever trust rating of 12.5 per cent (compared to over 62 per cent for Abela) was the spark that led to PN’s meltdown.
The dramatic events of the last few days have combined to turn the clock back to last July when the future of Adrian Delia was hanging by a thread. He bought time then by persuading his party to await the outcome of a reform programme led by former minister Louis Galea. But events have combined in such an unexpected way that time has now run out. Sadly, the reform programme is in danger of being side-lined in the scramble to find a successor to Delia.
The imperative now is to find a new leader. It will not be easy given Delia’s refusal to leave willingly and his abiding support among party members. If, when Delia is finally ejected (or leaves voluntarily), Nationalist members choosing their next candidate to be prime minister must address three questions.
The first is philosophical. Where does the candidate stand on the questions that count for the country? PN’s position on the philosophical questions remains open. The party has struggled to define its purpose with a clarity that can win elections.
The second is pragmatic, a caveat on the first. Even if the candidate can answer the right questions, is there a credible hope that he or she can persuade enough people to adopt those views?
The third question is professional. Is the candidate any good? Can they actually do the job well?
The issue of PN’s leadership is all the more relevant given the smooth and popular transition of power that has just occurred in the Labour Party.
It seems inevitable, therefore, that whatever recommendations for reform Louis Galea’s report makes, the burning question of the leader’s qualities will resurface and transcend them.
How the party handles the next few days will define its future. PN is at a crossroads between survival and irrelevance. The apparent desire for oblivion must be resisted. Assuming Delia departs without causing another fragmentation of the party, the first step towards relevance will be to select a candidate who is at least professional. PN needs a leader who can steer the party through a difficult decade ahead.
Have they any big hitter who could lead them through a long haul?
PN is stuck in a leadership vacuum. Its shadow cabinet is surely the least distinguished in its post-war history.
Its previous recent leaders have shown no contrition or humility for what has happened. They blame others for their own overwhelming defeats, rather than their own failings.
A PN revival looks implausible right now. But this is an era of volatility and novelty in politics. With the right person leading PN, anything could happen.
We could even see a phoenix rising from the ashes.