Between 1980 and 1983, I was the senior policy adviser in the UK Ministry of Defence responsible for all United States military bases in the United Kingdom. It was the height of the Cold War and, among other issues, I was responsible for implementing the controversial decision to deploy nuclear-armed cruise missiles at bases in Greenham Common in Berkshire and Molesworth in Cambridgeshire.
I learnt at first-hand about the ‘special relationship’ between America and Britain, a phrase which has been given new currency as Britain prepares to stumble out of the European Union. The centrepiece of newly elected Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s plans for Brexit Britain – or ‘Global Britain’ to borrow a phrase – is to negotiate a trade deal with the US.
Last week, President Trump called Mr Johnson to congratulate him on his new job. He said they had agreed to start trade talks “as soon as possible”. They discussed the important relationship between the two countries and agreed that “Brexit offered an unparalleled opportunity to strengthen the economic partnership between the UK and US”.
To consider the “ambitious free trade agreement” that both countries profess to want, it is vital to weigh carefully two factors. First, is Brexit Britain placing too much store on the so-called ‘special relationship’ with America for a good deal? And secondly, are both sides underestimating the complexity and politics of a US-UK trade agreement?
Relations between Britain and the US have always swung between highs and lows, reflecting the inherent vagaries of a relationship that has rarely run as smoothly as politicians on both sides of the Atlantic pretend.
It is a relationship born in conflict in the 18th century during the eight-year American War of Independence. There were more clashes of arms and interests between them in the 19th century as Britain viewed the US as a future Imperial rival threatening its global interests.
It is a lopsided relationship propped up by an illusion of equality
In the modern era, the relationship has been shaped by two mutually reinforcing trends. The steady expansion of US global power and the decline and fall of the British Empire. This was accelerated decisively by two world wars, leaving Britain exhausted, impoverished and indebted to the US.
Britain’s standing as the world’s leading military and economic power in 1900 was usurped by the US in less than 50 years.
The story of the post-1945 ‘special relationship’ – a term attributed to Winston Churchill – is actually the story of how successive British politicians have tried, with very mixed success, to guide, cajole and influence US leaders from a position of ever-increasing weakness. On the American side, it is a story of hard-headed exploitation of US advantage.
It is a lopsided relationship propped up by an illusion of equality. It would be delusional to think that President Trump – ‘America First’ – will do Britain any trade favours. With his hatred of the EU, Brexit Britain presents a strategic convenience for the US, consisting of reassuring pats on the head with the odd slaps to come.
The relationship with the US has been, and is today, a transactional relationship firmly rooted in realpolitik. Churchill sold British assets at knock-down prices and offered leases on overseas and UK military bases in exchange for outdated naval destroyers – a fateful step in the transfer of strategic power from Britain to the US. In the darkest hours of 1940-41, Churchill had no illusions about American altruism. He knew Britain needed the US and must pay America’s price.
The realities of Churchill’s relationship with President Roosevelt will be repeated as Brexit Britain seeks to negotiate a free trade agreement with Trump’s United States. For the same historic reasons, Britain remains the supplicant. At best, Trump believes the ‘special relationship’ is about doing Britain a favour for old time’s sake. But he is a deal-maker and a deal-breaker.
It would be foolhardy for Britain to enter trade talks with the US with any false expectations of nostalgic special treatment. Trump views Britain as a moderately useful client state, a junior military power. The problem is that the relationship cannot defy the laws of political gravity. Brexit Britain wants a trade agreement far more than Trump’s America does.
The US is Britain’s largest single-country trade partner. The US-UK trade relationship is valued at over £150 billion. The UK and US are also each other’s largest contributors of foreign direct investment, having around $1 trillion invested in each other’s economies. It is therefore little wonder that Johnson has identified a trade deal with the US as the first priority for new trade agreements after October 31.
Indeed, pursuing a trade agreement with the US could have a transformative effect on the British economy, for better or worse. Britain will need to be clear about the relative weight it gives the interests of different sectors within the UK economy. It should not be driven to make a trade agreement simply for the sake of making one – though its weakened post-Brexit position may lead to this.
It would be wrong of Johnson to underestimate the complexity of the free trade negotiation or, indeed, the vulnerability of Britain’s position. The US Congress (including the powerful Ways and Means Committee), not Trump, must approve any deal between the two countries.
Both the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Irish-American Caucus have stressed that if Brexit leads to a hard border in Ireland they will not endorse a deal. The ‘backstop’ (preventing a hard border), which Johnson insists must be removed, is the insurance policy that ensures the current critical open border continues.
Johnson should be disabused of the idea that a quick deal could be struck based on goodwill between him and President Trump. The President proposes trade agreements but Congress negotiates them. It takes years to complete them, and the idea that has been presented that it will be done quickly and easily is unrealistic wishful thinking.
It irks me to say it. But hard economic times beckon for Brexit Britain and there will be no US cavalry riding to the rescue.