The Members of the European Parliament, meeting in a plenary session in Strasbourg on July 16, elected German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission. She won 383 of the 733 votes cast, clearing the margin for an absolute majority by just nine votes.
It is difficult to say whether, over time, this weak majority would prove a handicap and undermine the ability of the new Commission President to forge ahead with the ambitious programme she presented in her opening statement. Von der Leyen herself was quite upbeat about the result, saying that it was a good start.
Since it was a secret ballot, there is no way of knowing exactly how the MEPs voted. Most commentators believe that Von der Leyen was elected by a pro-European majority made up roughly of 180 Christian Democrats, about a 100 Social Democrats and a 100 Liberals.
Von der Leyen certainly gave parliamentarians earnest guarantees in the hope of winning the support of a broad coalition of the mainstream pro-European parties, comprising her own centre-right Christian Democrats, the Liberals, the Socialists and the Greens. These together hold 518 of the EP’s 751 seats. She fell far short of this target.
Nonetheless, Von der Leyen’s opening statement before the vote was a skilful and policy-rich speech, and resonantly progressive. Her concrete proposals for the next institutional cycle take into account the EU Strategic Agenda 2019-2024 as well as the inputs of the consultations – both written and verbal – that she had with the various political groups.
She wooed the Greens with pledges of a Green Deal for Europe within her first 100 days in office. She promised to put forward the first ever European Climate Law that would set the 2050 target into law. CO2 emissions would be reduced by 50, if not 55 per cent by 2030.
Her greatest challenge will be to build bridges with a fragmented Parliament and a fragmented Council
This level of ambition requires investment on a large scale, and the new Commission President proposes a Sustainable Europe Investment Plan that includes turning parts of the European Investment Bank (EIB) into a Climate Bank. A Just Transition Fund will be set up to support those most affected by the fight against climate change, while a Carbon Border Tax will ensure a level playing field for industries.
To win the support of the Liberals, Von der Leyen promised a dedicated SME strategy that would reduce red tape and improve access to markets. She promised to complete the Capital Markets Union to ensure that SMEs would have access to the financing they need.
She pledged to launch a Budgetary Instrument for Convergence and Competitiveness in the euro area and to set up a European Deposit Insurance Scheme. She promised to refocus the European Semester into an instrument that integrates the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.
To woo the Socialists, Von der Leyen insisted that Europe’s economy must go hand in hand with social rights and that her mission was to support a Social Market Economy. She promised to propose within the first 100 days of her mandate a legal instrument to ensure that every worker in the Union would have a fair minimum wage. She undertook to put forward an action plan for the full implementation of the European Pillar of Social Rights.
Furthermore, Von der Leyen proposes a European Unemployment Benefit Reinsurance Scheme, which will support national unemployment insurances in cases of heavy external shocks to the national economy. She will also strengthen the Youth Guarantee, including tripling the Erasmus+ budget, and will introduce a Child Guarantee to protect every child in Europe against the risks of poverty and social exclusion.
Digitalisation features prominently in Von der Leyen’s political guidelines for the future Commission. She proposes that Europe should grasp the opportunities of the digital age within safe and ethical boundaries. For this purpose, she promises to put forward legislation for a coordinated European approach on the human and ethical implications of artificial intelligence within the first 100 days of her mandate. She also proposes a new Digital Services Act to upgrade liability and safety rules for digital platforms, and a Joint Cyber Unit to speed up information sharing and increase protection.
In an attempt to win across-party support, Von der Leyen makes three important commitments at the institutional level. First, she wants to give European citizens a say in building the future of Europe at a two-year Conference on the Future of Europe starting in 2020. Second, she appeals to Parliament to work together with the Commission to improve the “lead candidate” (spitzenkandidaten) system. Third, she will support the right of initiative for the EP. Von der Leyen is proud to be the first woman to lead the European Commission. She is strongly committed to gender equality. She will work on a new European Gender Strategy that will lead to new anti-discrimination legislation and will enshrine the principle of equal pay for equal work as well as gender balance on company boards. She will start by insisting on heading a fully gender-equal College of Commissioners.
In spite of such a policy-rich programme which reaches out to all parties in the European political spectrum – except for right-wing populists – Von der Leyen just scraped through.
This outcome is the result of various factors. Among them is the failure of the “lead candidate” doctrine championed by the EP and the identity crisis of the European mainstream centre and centre-left parties. They lost too much ground at the last European elections and were unable to form the traditional grand coalition.
Without a commanding majority, the incoming Commission President will be taking office with her authority somewhat dented. Her greatest challenge will be to build bridges with a fragmented Parliament and a fragmented Council.
Von der Leyen’s first test will be putting together a Commission from among candidates nominated by national governments. Will she be able to fulfil her commitment to a gender balanced Commission with personalities able to work as a team along the political guidelines she presented to Parliament?
In October, Parliament will vote on the Von der Leyen Commission. That will be a crucial vote and highly indicative as to whether the incoming Commission President would have managed to garner more support from MEPs than she had on July 16.
It is important to keep in mind that the success of the Von der Leyen Commission will not depend entirely on the zeal and determination of the Commission President and her College. Much depends on the cooperation of the EP and even more on a common political will of the member states to push the European project forward.
Edward Zammit Lewis is chairman of Parliament’s Foreign and European Affairs Committee.