The winner is....

Following changes effected prior to the 1987 election, general elections in Malta and Gozo are basically run on two options. I am always subject to correction.

One declares absolutely that the party with a majority of 50 per cent plus one has the right to govern. The second options stresses that should no party get 50 per cent plus one majority, then the President will call to govern these islands the party with the biggest number of seats gained in the House of Representatives.

This does not mean that such a party could be the biggest party or the one which earned the highest number of first preferences, but through proportional representation could finally get the biggest number of deputies in Parliament, without commending the highest number of first preferences.

We know that such a situation resulted in 1981, and though according to the Constitution the Malta Labour Party had the right to govern, in actual fact it was in a minority compared to the number of overall votes gained by the Nationalist Party.

So our island passed through a very delicate stage and the situation was somehow remedied prior to the general elections of 1987.

Since then we had the elections in 1992, 1996, 1998 and 2003. Luckily enough, there was always a clear verdict of one party or other gaining the 50 per cent plus one majority of number first preferences.

But one has to remember that, in 1996, the Malta Labour Party though having more than 8,000 first preferences more than the Nationalist Party, the latter had in fact obtained a bigger number of deputies elected to the House of Representatives. If my memory does not fail me, It was 34 to the Pn and 31 to the MLP.

So, in such situation the proviso was used that the MLP had four other deputies added, namely those that got the highest number of overall votes but still did not make it to Parliament.

So far I am only referring to history. But what is being done about the future? What is actually the current scenario? The Prime Minister in his concluding speech to the Extraordinary General Council of the PN expressed confidence that by 2008, the PN would have recovered all the lost popularity resulting from a number of factors, mainly fiscal measures and burdens, which different sectors are feeling that are too much for the people of Malta and Gozo.

On the other hand, the Labour Party is confident that it is gradually gaining the upper hand and in the coming general elections the floating voters will give it a push towards Castille.

But things are surely not so easygoing and might turn very differently from the way both the PN and the MLP are weighing their chances.

I believe there is the possibility that the MLP will be the party with the highest number of first preferences, but I am not that sure that this will be the 50 per cent plus one majority needed to govern. As I see it, there is a group of what we might call disenchanted voters within both parties, who may turn there attention to Alternattiva Demokratika.

Short of the fact that so far no amendment has been included in the Constitution that an overall five per cent national vote will entail any party a seat in the national assembly, the present system makes it very hard for Alternattiva to gain the much needed quota for a seat in one of the 13 districts of the electoral system.

There might be a slim chance that, should there be a heavy protest vote against the Nationalist Government in the Sliema district, Alternattiva may manage to gain a seat.

Should we say that this means the 2008-2013 government will be a coalition government? Maybe, or maybe not. There is a chance that both the PN and the MLP will get 32 seats each, with the other going to Alternattiva.

But it is very possible too that both the big parties will fail to gain the 50 per cent plus one majority. The PN might have the biggest number of members elected in Parliament, say 33 against 31 for the MLP and one of the Alternattiva.

This might be likely since usually the electoral districts are worked in a way that give advantage to the party in Government, who after all has a final say on rejecting or implementing the Electoral Commission's recommendations and can finally emend this report to his whims, with a simple majority in Parliament.

It is a bit far fetched to think that, in such scenario, Labour will gain 33 seats, the PN 31 and Alternattiva one seat. Truly, both possibilities give a one-seat majority to the biggest party and so there is no cause for alarm.

This notwithstanding the fact that the party gaining the biggest number of seats also gains the biggest number of first preferences. If not, there is cause for trouble. For the party with the biggest number of first preferences will be denied the right to govern.

This leads me to say that it is the duty of all the political parties concerned to do their utmost to try and avoid such an ambiguous situation. I humbly urge that reforms should be made to the electoral process that will ensure that, should none of the contesting parties gain 50 per cent plus one majority, then the right to govern will lean towards the party with the biggest number of first preferences and not on the final outcome of such a complex system of proportional representation such as ours.

In my view, such a situation will give the right to such a party to command at least a two-seat majority in Parliament and the rest will form the Opposition. Such a step will help to guarantee the stability of the party in government.

I said two seats and not one to avoid the occurrence of what happened to the MLP in 1996-98, when the government of the day was subjected to the whims of one of its own members. Malta cannot afford a repeat of such 'shameful' actions. We need a stable government to act in the best interest of the islands. I prefer it to be red, but the main point in this scenario is that, be it red, blue, green or whatever colour, it does not matter much, as long as this party will represent the will of the people expressed through their first preference votes.

So in the best interests of our island, I urge all political parties to reach an honourable agreement that will ensure that justice is not denied. And, yes, it is about time that Alternattiva Demokratika will be given a fairer share to exchange in a concrete and suitable manner, the number of first preferences gained in the general elections.

This could be through a national quota of five per cent. Should they fail to reach this target, the Greens should realise there is no place for them in Malta politics and disband.

But no repeat of 1981, please. We should be proud to be living in a really democratic country, where the best interests of the country reigns supreme. If I am totally wrong in my arguments, I beg your pardon. Who knows? I might be living an utopia or perhaps going slightly mad.