The 2024 US presidential election has delivered a result that has been described by analysts across the Atlantic as a political earthquake. The outright victory in both electoral and popular votes, coupled with the Republicans snatching both House and Senate ensure that Trump has complete control of decision-making institutions, a reality that has sent shockwaves across the globe.
This result gives Europe little time to think, but an urgency to act. As Trump counts the days to get back to the Oval Office, Europe must wake up to the stark reality that it is now, largely, on its own. This could spell trouble for the old continent, or in what would be a significant twist of fate, Europe could seize the moment to carve out a more assertive role on the world stage.
During his first term, Trump pushed ahead his America First agenda, an incongruous foreign policy approach which was mainly characterised by a general disinterest in multilateral accords. Not only he demanded NATO allies to increase their defence spending, but he actually took the United States out of several major institutions and agreements, such as the Human Rights Council, the Paris Climate Accords, the Open Skies Treaty, as well as the World Health Organisation, though this last decision was overturned by Joe Biden before it could be implemented. This approach, couple with a disinterest in regional wars happening beyond America’s range of interest, does not bode well for his relationship with Europe in the years ahead.
This situation calls on Europe to embark a path of greater self-reliance. Some would say – this should have happened long time ago. But Trump’s NATO doubts and his half-hearted commitment to long-standing alliances might act as a much-needed nudge for Europe to stand on its own two feet, boost its own defence capabilities and achieve more self-sufficiency in security. This could revitalise the EU’s plans to build a stronger European Defence Union and enhance its military strength, ultimately decreasing dependence on the U.S. and solidifying Europe’s role as a key player in global security.
Europe should also wield its soft power to consolidate its own alliances
This is not just about military prowess. Trump – and several of his appointees for top Cabinet posts, appear to veer towards a tough stance on trade, meaning America is likely to come up again with tariffs and protectionist measures that disrupted global markets. While Europe may face renewed pressure from Washington on trade issues, this could also be a catalyst for the EU to diversify its economic partnerships. The need to reduce dependence on the American market might encourage Europe to strengthen its ties with emerging economies such as Asia, Latin America and Africa, tapping into new growth opportunities and enhancing its economic resilience. This is obviously easier said than done. Perfect example of this is the long-coming EU-Mercosur agreement which France continuous to stall as it seeks to appease its large agricultural sector and angry farmers.
Despite this setback, Europe should also wield its soft power to consolidate its own alliances. Faced with an unpredictable ally in Washington, the EU has an opportunity to strengthen its relationships with like-minded partners. Whether through reinforcing its ties with Canada, Japan and Australia, or deepening its engagement with emerging powers in the Global South, Europe can pursue a strategy of building a broader coalition of allies committed to multilateralism, free trade and sustainable development.
With Trump seemingly more interested in pumping more oil and gas, Europe should be taking global leadership in driving the planet towards a greener and healthier future. If Trump’s pre-electoral pledges are to be considered as an indication of planned future action, the upcoming White House administration is unlikely to align with Europe’s ambitious climate goals. This divergence could serve as an incentive for the EU to double down on its Green Deal, positioning itself as a leader in sustainable development. By pushing forward with renewable energy investments and green technologies, Europe has the chance to set global standards, attracting investment and driving innovation in sectors that will define the future economy. The challenge here will be to avoid going through what some might describe as the typical EU path of over-regulating the industry, stifling it at inception stage.
The road ahead will be a bumpy one. The biggest issue with Trump is that you never really know what to except, making it harder to plan ahead. However, it is hard to escape the inevitable clear message: the era of relying on the United States as the cornerstone of European security and prosperity is fading. This is a moment for Europe to redefine itself, to rise to the occasion, and to become a point of reference in global affairs.
In many ways, Trump’s re-election is not just his moment; it is also Europe’s moment. It is a chance for the EU to step out of the shadows of American leadership and take on a more prominent role in asserting its values to shape, in non-confrontational ways, the world order. By investing in defence, diversifying trade partnerships, and leading on climate action, Europe can turn the challenges of a second Trump term into an opportunity for renewal and reinvention.
The next four years will test Europe’s resolve, but they could also prove to be the catalyst for a stronger, more united continent. As Trump begins his second term, Europe stands at a crossroads. Will it seek to adapt what it believes in to please an increasingly unpredictable ally, or will it seize this moment to forge a new path towards strategic autonomy and global leadership? The choice is Europe’s to make – and the time to act is now.