Trust in Robert Abela rises sharply, slight dip for Alex Borg

Robert Abela’s popularity has risen sharply over the past month, while that of Alex Borg has registered a slight dip, a new Times of Malta poll shows.

Abela registered a trust rating of 6.82, a sharp rise from the 5.85 score he received in a similar poll carried out in April.

Meanwhile, voters awarded Borg a trust rating of 4.23, a slight dip from last month’s 4.78 score.

In practice, this means the gap in trust between Abela and Borg stands at roughly 29 percentage points.

The poll was carried out by market research experts Esprimi, commissioned by Times of Malta.

It is based on a representative sample of 600 respondents, with responses collected between May 6 and 13, during the second and third weeks of the electoral campaign.

Pollsters asked respondents to rate their trust in each leader on a scale of one (lowest) to 10 (highest).

Abela's trust rating close to 2022 levels

The sharp rise in trust in Abela over the past month means his trust rating is now approaching that in March 2022, when his popularity peaked 6.9 in a pre-election poll. 

His popularity had dipped sharply after the election, falling to a low of 4.3 in the summer of 2023, before gradually crawling back up in recent months.

His current trust rating suggests that his popularity is higher than at any other point during the past legislature.

Borg, on the other hand, has seen his popularity dwindle ever since he registered a strong score of 5.38 in a poll carried out last October, just weeks after he was named PN leader.

The PN leader registered a trust rating of 4.78 in April and 4.23 in this latest poll. 

Borg performs well among university graduates, with the two leaders standing neck and neck in this cohort.

Borg has seen his support among this group rise slightly from 4.93 last month to 5.17 today.

Party supporters back their leaders

Pollsters would not have been surprised to find that both leaders registered particularly high scores among their own supporters.

Among Labour voters, Abela’s trust rating ballooned to 8.47, the highest rating throughout the entire legislature. His previous highest score, 7.98, was registered last month. That may indicate that Abela has won over many disgruntled Labourites as the election approaches.

Meanwhile, Abela remains unpopular among those who voted PN in 2022, with a trust rating of just 3.28, only marginally higher than his previous highest score among his cohort. This suggests that he has not succeeded in making any meaningful inroads among PN faithful.

However, Abela appears to have won over many undecided voters, with his trust rating among those who did not vote last election rising to 5.43, compared to 4.14 last month.

In a similar fashion, Alex Borg’s popularity among PN voters remains high, at 6.9, though it has waned slightly from the 7.2 rating he scored shortly after being named party leader.

Borg’s trust rating has however increased marginally among those who did not vote at all in 2022, rising from 4.39 last month to 5 today.

Leader trust among different age groups

Abela remains comfortably the more popular of the two leaders among all age cohorts, but this difference is particularly marked among voters aged over 45.

He registered a trust rating well above a score of seven among all older voters, peaking at 7.42 among voters of pensionable age.

Nevertheless, Abela also scored strongly among younger voters, although the 6.08 trust rating awarded to him by voters under the age of 25 was the lowest score he received.

Borg, on the other hand, fared slightly better with younger voters compared to older respondents. He scored highest among voters aged 35-44, who awarded him a score of 4.6. The youngest cohort of voters, those aged 16-25, awarded him an average score of 4.24.

Borg has failed to increase his trust rating among any of the age groups recorded, when compared to last month’s poll.

Abela surges in Gozo

It appears Borg has also failed to maintain support in his home region of Gozo.

Last month’s poll showed that Borg’s initially high trust rating in Gozo of 6.12 had taken a significant knock, falling to 4.70 in April. This has now dipped further, falling to a score of 4.44.

Gozitans instead appear to have turned towards Abela, with his trust rating among this group rising rapidly from 5.07 last month to 7.42 today.

More broadly, Abela remains the more popular politician across all national regions.

This difference is most marked in Labour strongholds like the southern and south-eastern regions, where Abela’s trust rating topped a score of seven, while Borg scored below four.

However, Abela also enjoys more trust in the typically PN-leaning northern and western regions.