Ukraine is fighting to hold on through another winter

After years of fighting since Russia's full-scale invasion of the country in February 2022, Ukraine's general population is showing signs of pessimism about when the war might end. There is a growing focus on the human cost, and the question of how much longer the country can endure. Many Ukrainian soldiers are tired and exhausted, which raises concerns about the country's ability to endure another year of war. 

Humanitarian charities are not losing hope but are facing significant challenges due to donor fatigue and dwindling funding as the war in Ukraine continues. This makes it difficult to meet the growing needs of millions of people, despite ongoing efforts by aid workers who remain dedicated and inspired by their colleagues and the people they serve. The current situation suggests that while the desire for peace is universal, there is no end in sight for the conflict, and Ukrainians are preparing to endure another holiday season in a state of war.

Ukraine is preparing to face its most uncertain future since the war began. With peace talks at its doorstep, the situation is tense. The country remains in urgent need of humanitarian aid, with approximately 12.7 million people inside the country requiring assistance in 2025 due to the ongoing war. The relentless hostilities, mass displacement, and destruction of critical infrastructure have created a severe and persistent crisis. Organizations such as the Ukrainian Red Cross, Nova Ukraine, and Voices of Children are trying to provide a range of aid, including emergency relief, rehabilitation, and long-term support, but they constantly need more resources.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he will hold meetings in Turkey as his team prepares to "reinvigorate negotiations" to end the war. Zelenskyy says Ukraine has "developed solutions that we will propose to our partners".

"Doing everything possible to bring the end of the war closer is Ukraine’s top priority," he says, adding that he's also seeking a resumption of prisoner exchanges with Moscow. Zelensky thanked everyone who supports the Ukrainian people in their pursuit of peace and stability.  

As a result of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the parties agreed to activate the Istanbul agreements and to release 1,200 Ukrainian prisoners. This week, Russian forces attacked three districts in the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine. There has been significant damage and civilian casualties.  Across Ukraine, families are bracing themselves for even tougher times ahead a long, cold winter in which Russian President Vladimir Putin attempts to finish off his invasion by striking Ukraine's power supplies and networks. Just last weekend, a massive drone and missile strike left much of the country for a time without power.

Ukrainians are now enduring regular power cuts of up to 16 hours a day. In winter, temperatures in Ukraine can plummet as low as -20C. One senior government figure told me they expect the next few months to be brutal. "I think it will be the worst winter of our history," says the official. "Russia will destroy our energy, our infrastructure, our heating. All state institutions should be prepared for the worst scenario."

Repeatedly in recent weeks, whole cities have been plunged into cold darkness as power plants, transmission lines and regional and local substations are damaged or destroyed. Rolling power outages are now common, reportedly lasting up to 14 hours in some cases.

The latest political scandal to hit the government of Volodymyr Zelensky could hardly have come at a worse time for his country. And to make matters worse, it revolves around Ukraine’s energy industry. Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies last week released the findings of Operation Midas, an 18-month probe into Energoatom, the state-owned operator of all of Ukraine’s nuclear power plants, investigating allegations of bribes and kickbacks said to amount to US$100 million. Raids were carried out around the country, and seven people have been arrested.

Today as you walk the streets of Kyiv and Lviv and you will pass a sea of tired faces, people's eyes are red from a lack of sleep, their rest broken by the constant sound air raid sirens. Based on my observations, most Ukrainians feel abandoned, the mood has changed. Despite the official "support as long as it takes" stance from Western and global allies, delays and question marks over the degree and duration of military and humanitarian aid have created a sense of abandonment in many cities.

Patrick O’Brien is a journalist and a director at Exante.