Untruths and constitutional waffle

It is amazing how many people seem to lose their marbles at election time. It is not the fanatics that shock me most but those who seem most cerebral between elections. I may never recover from the shock of reading Austin Bencini's article "A coalition of voters.... not of seats" (March 31).

Dr Bencini is a cousin, a friend and a colleague, a lecturer in constitutional law and the company secretary of Allied Newspapers Ltd besides being one of the foremost IVA Movement campaigners. I was gobsmacked when I read it. He has left me no choice but to respond.

In recent weeks I have given every spare moment to home visits in the eighth electoral district telling people of AD's strategy to save the situation. It is very simple:

a) A formal alliance with the PN was attempted but was not possible for reasons best known to the PN but certainly not because AD made demands that were too heavy. We made no demands at all.

b) When the alliance option was aborted by the filing of PN candidacies on the first day of filing while talks were ongoing, AD was left with one of two options: 1. to withdraw from the election or 2. to contest the election in order to minimise damage to the yes coalition and to add insurance on the EU membership issue by electing an AD MP.

Option no. 1 was discussed (which other party would even consider it?) but discarded because it gave no security that leaving the field to the PN would secure membership. If the AD vote was essential in gaining a yes in the referendum then all the AD vote must be put in the balance in the election to confirm the referendum result. Not contesting would disorient our core support who would justifiably revolt against dictation by the leadership. After keeping alive the hope of a third party for 14 years through thick and thin they could not be asked to vote for another party. Many would be so disgusted they would not vote at all.

In such an event we would risk losing everything: EU membership, the hope of government with democratic credentials and the hope of ever having a third party in parliament. It was not an option.

We were left with just one option: to gather the AD vote and to make sure it achieves representation in parliament in this election. Not only for the sake of AD voters, who have persisted through three general elections already, but to take out insurance against the possibility of an anti-EU minority government by the MLP.

AD took on an additional challenge: whereas we had formerly been constrained to contest the election to raise our nationwide vote to pressure the other parties into making the necessary election law changes, this time we had to elect an MP at all costs to ensure EU membership.

Our stance is based on the univocal reading of the Constitution which provides that in the event of a third party being elected to parliament no account will be taken of the relative positions of the PN and MLP but only a majority of seats in parliament will determine the formation of a government. Dr Bencini's article says that all this is a pack of untruths. He effectively says I was uttering untruths. He levels the same charge at Prime Minister Eddie Fenech Adami since the latter explained the relative constitutional provisions in precisely the same terms as myself in the opening speech of the electoral campaign.

AD had laid out a strategy for electing an MP long before the referendum result made it a necessity and long before anybody had any idea that the election would sit cheek by jowl with the EU referendum. We concentrated our efforts in a small space. We chose the 10th district and the eighth district as our targets. The 10th - Sliema, St Julian's, Swieqi, Pembroke and Ta' l-Ibrag - because it is where we have had consistently the best results in every election since 1992. We chose the eighth because it is where all parties' leaders will be contesting the election and huge surpluses of no. 2 votes are available to elect an AD MP.

We worked on this strategy for four years. In 2002 we returned to the local council elections and obtained our best results in the 10th district - 9.3 per cent in Pembroke and 7.4 per cent in St Julian's; the PN block vote prevented our election by a whisker and backfired because the large number of AD votes passing to PN candidates were dispersed while a smaller proportion going to the MLP elected Labour candidates because they were fewer in number. Some people are too clever for their own good.

In 2003 we elected councillors bang in both our target districts. Lija - 9.9 per cent growing to 19.4 per cent on the final count, Birkirkara, where we climbed to election from 5.4 per cent and Sliema, where we gained a seat after climbing from 7.3 per cent and 644 votes to 813 votes. Our secret of success has been meeting people and speaking to them directly for the first time ever.

Now Dr Bencini implies that we have been telling people untruths. It is an intolerable situation and our forbearance in this electoral campaign has reached breaking point. We have done our very utmost to keep the yes to EU front compact. We proposed an alliance with the PN despite our reservations on many of their policies and practices on many issues other than EU membership. We kept mum while PN candidates ran riot with stories to people about a secret alliance that does not exist, about promises of post-election appointments, about AD making absurd demands in return for an alliance. It is all nonsense. We refused what was offered in return for not contesting the election.

Our only request was to contest the election as a compact yes front to have our votes counted together. There is no post-election compact other than the public commitment to support a government that will secure EU membership.

PN candidates put pressure on AD voters not to vote AD no. 1 and we do not react in order not to create a rift. We know that the country knows that AD's overall result in this election bears no relation with AD's actual standing in the country. The idiocy of our electoral system has been exposed in all its obscenity. That much we have already won and we cannot lose.

Concentrating on minimising the AD vote is sheer stupidity. In this election, given the magnitude of the issues at stake, only the core of the core may be left to AD. It is irreducible. They are people who have been through the onslaught with us three times already. They are the ones who have seen AD achieve its best ever national standing; they will never give up on us. Why waste the energy in creating panic in the last few days? It does not matter how many or how few people vote for AD if AD is elected to parliament.

AD can get to parliament with a handful of no. 1 votes in one particular district. If a mass of PN voters in the eighth district vote AD no. 2, AD will have its first MP and will still be excellent insurance on the EU membership issue, no matter what Dr Bencini says. To attempt to refute this strategy is stupidly suicidal for anyone with any interest in EU membership for Malta. Pro-EU candidates who contest with AD for the no. 2 vote in the eighth district are putting themselves before the country and will be held to account for any consequences. To their credit until this writing, our rivals on the eighth district have exercised admirable restraint. Something Dr Bencini would do well to emulate.

What it all boils down to is whether or not an absolute majority of voters will back the yes to EU parties. How many or how few will vote AD is an irrelevance in this regard. If an absolute majority does not exist then we shall have an MLP government no matter what because we want to remain a democratic country. If an absolute majority of voters want to confirm their yes to EU only one danger exists: if AD is not elected to parliament.

In this event the possibility of an MLP government by relative not absolute majority does exist. It can only be averted if AD is elected to parliament. Electing an AD MP particularly on the eighth district is an excellent form of insurance. To squander the option is sheer folly.

Whether or not AD is elected to parliament is not an irrelevance to anyone anymore. There is no guarantee that the yes to EU camp (AD + PN) has an absolute majority of the vote let alone whether the PN alone has such a majority. In our view there is no safety in splitting the yes to EU and the only way to keep it together at this stage is to have an AD MP elected. Wasting energies reducing the AD vote is madness and futile.

Dr Bencini is half right in saying that in the event of AD being elected to parliament the nationwide AD vote will not be counted. It will not be counted because the Constitution provides for a majority by seats at that point. It is understood that there may be two parties at that point that are under-represented and the Constitution makes no provision for compensation. This means that, in fairness, the MLP may claim another seat to assure proportional representation and AD another two seats. Nothing of the sort will happen.

One matter Dr Bencini did not mention is the fact that with the present configuration of electoral districts a distinct bias in favour of the PN subsists and in the event of AD having just one seat in parliament the likely outcome is PN 33, AD one and the MLP 31. Since the other parties concentrate on a two-party shootout, having the compensation mechanism to even things out between them, they are not overly concerned about this issue. In the present circumstances it will provide AD with an ideal position in parliament. AD will not be the legal linchpin. The PN may govern alone with 33 seats and has no fear of any AD, MLP combination which will still give a minority of 32 seats. AD may be asked to support the government side since this will give legitimacy to the new government and reassure the people that the government actually enjoys an absolute majority of the vote.

At this juncture it may be worthwhile making it clear that AD has every intention to support Malta's entry into the EU and will give whatever support may be required of it to ensure stability and transparency in government. However, in view of the democratic unpreparedness of far too many people outside AD at this time we are reluctant to accept any government responsibility in the next government and will concentrate on obtaining those electoral reforms that will ensure a peaceful election in 2008 and security of mind for us all thereafter. Our service to the country in parliament, stiffening the government's backbone, will be sufficient for us to earn whatever further credit we need to convince the electorate that three parties in parliament are a much better option than the total war and eternal electoral campaign of the two-party system.

Dr Vassallo is chairman of Alternattiva Demokratika

www.alternattiva.org.mt