US foreign policy and the 2004 election

A predominant issue in international relations at the moment is the course that American foreign policy is taking and the specific question as to whether George W. Bush will win a second term as US President in a year's time.

The main reason that analysts are already focused on November 2004 is that they believe that US foreign policy in the next 12 months will largely be dominated by the electoral calendar. Most pundits believe that a change in the White House would have a significant impact on the direction that American foreign policy takes in the years to come.

Since his election in November 2000 and especially since the terror attacks of September 11, 2001 President Bush has executed a largely unilateral foreign policy agenda. He has ushered in a period of large spending on the military and reoriented American domestic and foreign policy to focus on one issue - the global war on terror (GWOT).

Most of the US foreign policy elite have been executing policy programmes that attempt to manage relations with the so-called "axis of evil" - Iraq, Iran and North Korea. As a result the Bush administration has mainly been busy mobilising diplomatic, economic and military resources against this trio of states.

In a few months' time President Bush's contender from the Democratic Party will be known, given the compact nature of the Presidential primaries at the start of 2004. For the first time in years some Democrat contenders are starting to find a national voice on the campaign trail by concentrating on two primary issues dominating the mind of the electorate: the astronomical cost of reconstruction in Iraq and the current state of the US economy.

Given the fact that even a week is a long time in politics a prognosis of what lies ahead in the US is difficult. However a number of indicators that will influence the American electoral campaign and the election itself are already evident.

Will weapons of mass destruction or concrete evidence of such a weapons programme be found in Iraq? Will either Osama Bin Laden or Saddam Hussein be captured or killed in the months to come? Will another major terror attack against the US take place and thus allow President Bush to demonstrate his leadership qualities in an overt manner? Will the American economy continue to shows signs of recovery and perhaps also start to show definite signs of growth?

Although a change to a Democratic White House in November 2004 would eliminate the neo-conservatives' hold on policymaking, one should not expect an immediate radical shift in American foreign policy objectives. These will be determined by strategic circumstances as they unfold. A second Bush administration or a new President will still have to deal with the long list of security challenges that include reconstruction of Iraq, containing nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea, and defeating global terror movements. It is however clear that a change in the White House would result in a change in style of policymaking.

With 12 months to go to the US Presidential election, it is likely that President Bush will spend the next few months trying to scale down, at least cosmetically, American military's presence in Iraq. This will be done through a systematic effort to further internationalise the post-war reconstruction effort and recruit forces from other countries that are prepared to send ground troops to Iraq.

President Bush must also find a way of overcoming what has so far turned out to be a major foreign policy blunder - implementation of the Middle East road map. Unless Washington is able to re-engage the main protagonists, namely Israel and the Palestinians, and convince them that it is in their interest to return to the negotiating table, regional dynamics in this sub-region of the Mediterranean will only worsen.

Having avoided the mistake that his father made when in the White House a decade ago of appearing to neglect the domestic dimension of the Presidency, George W. Bush must demonstrate some of his father's acumen in foreign policy, especially when it comes to restoring stability to the Middle East. Getting it right in the Middle East will all but guarantee Mr Bush a second term.

Dr Calleya is an international relations analyst