US positive on UN Iraq vote

The United States said yesterday it doubted Russia or China would veto a UN Security Council resolution designed to pave the way for war on Iraq.

The comments, made by a senior US administration official speaking on condition of anonymity, came in time to bolster Washington's main supporter on Iraq, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, as he tackled a major parliamentary revolt.

But with Moscow and Beijing sticking to their public opposition to war and France insisting most Council members still opposed an invasion now, it remained unclear who would win the battle for political opinion.

Nearly 200 members of parliament defied British Prime Minister Tony Blair's hawkish Iraq stance yesterday, saying that the case for war had not been proven.

The government put forward a motion asking parliament for backing for UN efforts to disarm Iraq. It did not mention the possibility of war which could follow within weeks.

But 199 MPs backed an amendment to that motion which stated the case for war is as yet unproven.

Embarrassingly for Blair, most of them came from his ruling Labour Party.

With the breakdown of votes still being tallied, one Labour MP said 120 or more of his party allies had defied their leader, more than a quarter of the total in parliament, dwarfing any previous rebellion against Blair.

Blair's huge parliamentary majority and the support of most opposition Conservatives ensured he won the vote by 393 to 199.

So far, only four of the nine votes needed for the new resolution to pass in the 15-strong Council are assured. China, France or Russia could veto even a majority decision.

Washington and London would like approval for the draft in mid-March - rising summer temperatures mean US generals would rather fight sooner than later.

Many British parliamentarians have expressed concern over instability in Iraq and the region after any invasion. Hundreds of armed members of the ruling Baath Party took to the streets of a Baghdad district yesterday in a one-day exercise for possible conflict.

Some in military fatigues, others in civilian clothes, they directed traffic and stood guard at key buildings in a drill aimed at testing their ability to police the city during a war.

The New York Times said US intelligence officials had identified more than 2,000 members of the Iraqi elite, with some to be captured as possible war criminals and others the US military would try to turn against the Iraqi leader.

US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz appeared sanguine about problems setting up a stable and representative post-Saddam government in Baghdad from Iraq's divided ethnic groups in an interview broadcast by Britain's Sky television.

"These ethnic groups have not had decades of slaughtering one another as happened in the Balkans. The problem in Iraq is a regime that slaughters everbody, it's equal opportunity repression," he said.

The senior US official, speaking in Moscow, echoed that sang-froid in the context of the United Nations, saying he doubted China and Russia would use their vetoes despite their public stance that UN inspectors should be given more time.

"I don't think there is any question of a Chinese veto. The most likely result is that they'll abstain...They are not going to stand in the way," he told reporters.

"I don't think there'll be a Russian veto either," he said, adding that Moscow might even vote for the new resolution.

"We're not there yet but we have got two weeks," he said, referring to the preferred US mid-March deadline for a vote.

Iraqi Vice President Taha Yassin Ramadan told Russian newspaper Vremya Novostei countries which supported America in any future war would be legitimate targets for retaliation.

"War is war. If aggression is shown against Iraq, it can of course use any means to defend itself. I want to say only that whoever helps the Americans will be seen as their accomplice."

One of the countries most concerned about retaliation from Iraq is Turkey, which Washington would like to use as a launchpad for a northern invasion of Iraq in the event of war.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell telephoned Prime Minister Abdullah Gul to stress the urgency of deploying up to 62,000 US troops in Turkey, Anatolian news agency said.

Turkish leader Tayyip Erdogan said later he expected parliament to debate a long-awaited deal to allow the troops to use Turkey in return for economic aid and political concessions. A vote could follow quickly.

A cargo ship docked at Iskenderun port in southern Turkey yesterday and began unloading Dutch Patriot air defence missiles promised for the defence of Turkey if there is a war.

AWACS air reconnaissance aircraft were due to arrive under a NATO agreement in the central city of Konya later yesterday to patrol the skies near the Iraqi border.

Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany, which put forward a proposal on Monday with France and Russia to give UN weapons inspections at least four more months, was due to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin later yesterday.

Russian media meanwhile speculated over a mystery visit to Washington by Alexander Voloshin, President Vladimir Putin's chief of staff. Voloshin has met senior US officials including, briefly, President George W. Bush.

Media reports said Voloshin could be seeking assurances that Russia's economic interests would be looked after in post-war Iraq in exchange for supporting the US draft UN resolution.

France kept its cards close to its chest over its likely action on the new resolution, which it opposes on the grounds that it would mean needlessly rushing into war.

French Defence Minister Michele Alliot-Marie told RMC radio that a French veto was "not an issue" at the moment, because Paris believed it was in the majority for now.

President Vicente Fox of Mexico, a temporary Security Council member, offered support for a modified version of the new resolution yesterday in a softening of his opposition to the US stance. He did not say what changes he wanted to see.