In less than a year, European citizens will go to the polls to elect the next European Parliament (EP). Shortly after the elections, member State leaders will decide who will lead the European Commission, the executive arm of the EU.

This year’s State of the European Union speech delivered by Commission president Ursula von der Leyen must be analysed in this context, even if the most demanding challenges that the Union faces have a much broader backdrop.

As a seasoned politician, von der Leyen knows better than anyone else what needs to be done to inject dynamism into the EU, which faces formidable geopolitical and economic challenges.

Her ambition to be selected for a second term of the European Commission presidency is undoubted, even if she never said a word to confirm this. In her speech to the EP, she touched on some, but not all, of the critical challenges that the EU faces.

Arguably, her most essential comments related to what she sees as unfair competition from China, especially regarding the export of electric cars to Europe. She argued that China’s subsidies to the electric car industry “distort our markets”, adding: “We do not accept this from the inside, we do not accept this from the outside.”

She launched an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from China. Unsurprisingly, China says it will retaliate, thereby further destabilising the globalisation dynamics of the last three decades.

The geopolitical challenges hardly attracted any meaningful comments from the Commission president. Von der Leyen avoided mentioning the need for a “European defence union” promoted by the European People’s Party chief Manfred Webber. She did, however, signal her support for the enlargement of the EU in mentioning the Western Balkan States, Ukraine and Moldova. 

The local MEPs, the prime minister and the opposition leader generally welcomed von der Leyen’s speech content.

Still, in their comments, they all focused on showcasing issues of particular interest to them, including the rule of law, social agenda, digitalisation, labour shortage and migration. Like von der Leyen, local politicians know the importance of preparing for the next electoral contest.

What von der Leyen failed to emphasise is just as important as what she focused on. A critical issue that needs to be decided upon is the new fiscal regime for the eurozone that should come into force next year. The EU’s ambitious green and digitalisation agenda is already facing substantial challenges from some countries. It will face even more obstacles if robust fiscal rules do not underpin how this agenda will be funded.

The rule of law remains a vexing topic for the Commission. The populist right-wing governments in Hungary and Poland are a thorn in the side of the Union’s administrative arm. Yet, von der Leyen played it safe and failed to spell out how the Commission will ensure that the democratic values of the EU remain mandatory for all member States. 

How the EU intends to tackle the persistent problem of irregular migration remains obscure. Beyond the usual rhetoric of building partnerships with North African countries to reduce migratory pressures on Europe, there is still no clarity on how these partnerships will work.

The way ahead for the EU will only become more evident in a year’s time when the new EP and Commission will be in place.