The increase of greenhouse gases is one of the reasons of global warming; the other one is the reduction of the global forest coverage. While there were six trillion trees at the dawn of humanity there are three trillion left today. We are breathing on one lung.

As a result, the carbon dioxide released by industries, ships, cars and planes is not absorbed by those missing trees and remains in the atmosphere, creating a greenhouse effect, which leads to an increase in temperature.

We are losing 15 billion trees a year to deforestation; at this rate, that is 900 billion in 60 years, which is the time that has passed since we first started talking of global warming. Tragic.

An old problem

Since 1959 and the warning of radical effects on the planet, climate scientists have been working on predicting precisely the disastrous situation in which we are today. As predicted, the global gas emissions have risen by 25 per cent by 2000 and exponentially since then, which has resulted in the global average temperature rising due to the greenhouse gases being in the atmosphere. Species are disappearing; ice is melting; the sea level is rising; and more alarmingly, the ocean bacteria are smaller and there are more of them. We were all aware of global warming; we watched it happen and did nothing. What can we do now?

Is it the end? The end of life as we know it? Another massive extinction. Did we think of ourselves too highly and forgot to respect nature as we should? Yes, it is, if we keep doing nothing.

With data science, multivariate prediction, neural networks and predictive modelling we found that an increase of the global forest coverage by 30 per cent would enable the gas emissions to be absorbed and the global average temperature to be reduced.

Smouldering trees following a controlled forest fire in Brazil. Photo: AFP

We need to plant trees and let them grow; a trillion trees. We must also reduce gas emissions when possible.

We are losing 15 billion trees a year to deforestation; at this rate, that is 900 billion in 60 years

The young generation is well aware of the urgency of the situation and expresses it with the Friday school strikes led by Greta Thunberg. The movement exists in Malta too. Sitting with them is a fantastic experience, and I encourage every person in Malta to join them and protest for Malta to declare a climate emergency.

Vegetation on the island is disappearing, trees are being cut down to widen roads, traffic and the frequent visits of ever larger cruise ships make the air pollution dangerous to children just like in cities such as London or Hong Kong. Although reducing gas emissions is crucial, this alone would not be enough to stop global warming.

A global solution

Planting a trillion trees is the best solution we have now and we should have started a long time ago.

We need to invert the deforestation trend and go from cutting down 15 billion trees a year to planting 15 billion new trees. If at the moment 15 billion a year are cut and not replaced, this means we need to plant 30 billion a year to have an increase of 15 billion.

We would have 450 billion new trees in 30 years, 900 in 60 years. This, combined with a reduction of gas emissions  would save life on our planet. Worth trying? Yes.

This requires a global effort. A few countries have begun: India planted one billion, Ethiopia 350 million in a day, China is planting 10 billion, Ireland plans on planting 0.5 billion in 20 years and the UK 1.5 in 30 years. Is this enough? Definitely not. We need to plant 30 billion a year for this plan to work. Where would we have the space to do this? Deserts. 

A dead tree on the chemin des Douaniers, in Bandol, France. Photo: AFP

Terraforming the Sahara is possible. The biggest reserve of fresh water lies underneath its dry land. Drilling wells and creating irrigation systems would enable new trees to be watered. Building large shading structures would allow the sunlight and temperature to be controlled.  The young trees growing in these biospheres create a root system cooling the soil and extending beyond the structures  thus enabling new vegetation to grow and keeping humidity in the ground.

Birds will come and spread the new seeds helping us in the reforestation effort. This would also require people to create and maintain these new forests; creating new jobs and stabilising the area.

In areas hosting refugees, projects following the permaculture principles are promising, developing know-how and training people, giving them a future and improving nature at the same time.

What can I do?

Plant seeds. We have a global solution, but the past has shown us that if we all think others will take care of it, nothing happens. Yes, large-scale operations lie with government and organisations such as the European Parliament, but what can I do individually?

We can talk about trees and encourage people to plant more of them.

Go for a walk in parks or forests in autumn, find some seeds and acorns, plant them at home in pots, transfer them to bigger pots as they grow, eventually plant them in the ground or leave them on your balcony or rooftop.

Planting trees contributes to the absorption of  greenhouse gases, raises awareness by showing new trees, keeps the seeds as it will produce new ones and makes people’s lives happier.

Dr Cédric Mesnage lectures in data science and conducts research on global warming and artificial intelligence.

http://globaltreeplantingcampaign.blogspot.com