The defeat of Donald Trump and the election of Joe Biden as the next US president is historic. It is a significant setback to populism around the globe and a massive reversal of worldwide trends against centrist political candidates. Biden’s victory is also as vote for a return to normality, democracy, the rule of law, decency in public life and an America that believes in multilateralism and is fully engaged globally.
In a nutshell, Biden, a Democrat, won the election because he beat Trump in five so-called ‘battleground’ or ‘swing’ states which had voted Republican in 2016, namely Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia. These victories gave him a comfortable majority in the Electoral College, which is what is needed to win the White House. All the other states voted along the same lines as they did four years ago. In Georgia, because the result was so close, a recount is underway but observers don’t expect any reversal.
Significantly, Biden won the highest number of votes ever for a presidential candidate, 77.5 million, and received over five million votes more than Trump. So, although the election was close in a number of states, there was a huge margin between the candidates in terms of the national popular vote.
The Democrats retained control of the House of Representatives and have 48 seats in the Senate compared to 50 for the Republicans. However, in January, a run-off election for Georgia’s two Senate seats will be held and if the Democrats win both elections, they will have equal representation with the Republicans. This means that Kamala Harris, who made history by becoming the first black and Indian woman vice president, will have a casting vote, effectively giving the Democrats a majority.
As expected, Trump remained a liar and a cheat until the very end. He has still refused to concede this election, claiming instead that Biden won only as a result of massive electoral fraud and illegal voting, despite no evidence of any irregularities. His lawyers have filed lawsuits in a number of states, many of which have already been thrown out.
While Trump’s reaction is absolutely shocking, it is not at all surprising and is exactly the response many of us expected from him. His refusal to concede gracefully – in contrast to all losing presidential candidates before him, from both parties – is consistent with his behaviour over the last four years. Trump is simply unable to act presidential.
Trump remained a liar and a cheat until the very end- Anthony Manduca
As Senator Mitt Romney, one of the very few brave Republicans to urge Trump to concede, said: “You’re not going to change the nature of President Trump in these last days, apparently, of his presidency. He is who he is. He has a relatively relaxed relationship with the truth.”
By refusing to accept the election result, Trump has greatly damaged America’s global image (he has already done this extensively over these past four years) and has caused extensive damage to the country’s democracy. In which democracies do leaders decline to accept the electoral result and refuse to commit to a peaceful transfer of power?
I do believe that Biden will be president but, in the meantime, Trump remains in the White House until January 20. He will likely attempt to sort out his business affairs, pardon a number of his associates who have been jailed and make the Biden transition as difficult as possible. The president has already blocked Biden from access to facilities, funding and expertise that usually come in a ready-made package to help an incoming leader. We must all hope that he won’t take any rash decisions in foreign policy that could trigger an international crisis.
Biden will inherit a difficult situation, a divided nation and a pandemic that is out of control thanks to Trump’s gross mismanagement. Most Republicans sadly believe the election was rigged and Biden, an experienced political operator who has always sought consensus, will need all his expertise to bring the country together.
Biden, who will become America’s only second Catholic president, has acted extremely well since the election, maintaining his dignity, acting in a presidential manner, working quietly on the transition and immediately reaching out to those who voted for Trump. He has listed COVID, the economy, racial equality and climate change as his top four priorities and appointed an experienced chief of staff, Ron Klain, as well as a team of scientists to develop a blueprint for tackling COVID-19.
As president, Biden will not have an easy time dealing with the Republicans, the majority of whom remain, at least until now, fully supportive of Trump. We cannot overlook the fact that Trump got 72 million votes, the highest ever for a Republican candidate, so we can probably expect him to remain the standard-bearer of his party for quite some time. Biden will need to ensure that certain voters who felt abandoned by the Democrats, due to globalisation, for example, are no longer ignored. He will also need to balance the party’s centrist and progressive wings when deciding economic and social policy.
On the international front, there are understandably high expectations for a Biden presidency. Under his leadership, the US is expected to rejoin the Iran nuclear pact, the WHO and the Paris climate agreement. Democracies will once again have a friend in the White House and Biden will hopefully have a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, arms control as well as towards any trade disagreements with China.
We can expect Biden to acknowledge the importance of cordial relations with Russia while, at the same time, standing up to President Vladimir Putin whenever necessary. And, perhaps most crucially, a Biden presidency will be fully committed to Nato and to the special relationship with the European Union.
Of course, for all this to materialise, a peaceful transfer of power has to take place. America, the whole world is watching you.