As tumultuous as 2024 has been, this year promises to ramp up the political drama even further, potentially closing the circle on some of the stories that have dominated Malta’s news cycle over the past decade. We look ahead to what we can expect of the political scene in 2025.
Vitals saga
The arraignment of Joseph Muscat and other major political players linked to the Vitals hospital concession dominated headlines in 2024 but the story is not going away anytime soon.
For a start, we should soon learn what will happen in the arbitration proceedings between Steward Health Care and the government. The latter is demanding monetary compensation for Steward’s failures as the American healthcare firm chases a €100 million cancellation fee it had once negotiated.
But the case will likely explode into life once the courts reach a verdict on the involvement of the key political players, from Muscat, Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri to Chris Fearne and Edward Scicluna, who face lesser charges.
What the outcome will mean for Malta’s political scene is anybody’s guess.
A guilty verdict might see the current Labour administration attempt to draw the curtain on the messy affair and definitively distance itself from the culprits.
An acquittal, on the other hand, could make things far more complicated, potentially paving the way for the political return of a freshly absolved Muscat.
The repercussions that a verdict in the Vitals affair will have on the opposition’s fortunes is also unclear. Nationalist Party insiders say there is a feeling within the party that the Vitals well has been run dry and that there is unlikely to be more political capital to gain from the issue.
“We obtain our victory, we celebrate but, at some point, we have to move on,” one PN insider told Times of Malta. “If a person shows up at a Christmas party and spends hours on end talking about the same thing, at some point, everyone around them will lose interest.”
Likewise, there appears to be a feeling that a series of other inquiries into possible governmental wrongdoing – from the Electrogas power station to the Montenegro wind farms – could be concluded in the coming months. However, they are unlikely to move the dial too drastically when it comes to public sentiment, particularly since they feature many of the same protagonists under the spotlight for the Vitals affair.
Trial of the decade
Courtrooms will continue to dominate Malta’s political narrative throughout the year, with the trial of Yorgen Fenech in connection with the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia expected to kick off in the first half of the year.
Like the Vitals affair, Fenech’s trial could have an unpredictable effect on Maltese politics, snowballing out of control, regardless of the verdict.
Over the years, the case has already spurred the downfall of several top political figures – including Muscat’s – and it is unclear whether more could follow by the time the trial reaches its end.
But while the trial will undoubtedly set the pulses of political aficionados racing, some think that the jaded public at large is unlikely to be swayed by the outcome. One PN insider told Times of Malta that the trial “might not be a political gamechanger”, barring any unexpected twists in the tale. Still, activists will be closely monitoring the trial, and its outcome could possibly see a repeat of the dramatic 2019 protests.
Election rumours
The Labour Party’s dramatic haemorrhage in votes in June’s elections forced party insiders to speculate that Robert Abela would call an election way before the scheduled 2027 date.
While rumblings of a possible early general have died down in recent weeks, insiders from both sides of the political spectrum have not excluded the possibility of an election taking place in early 2026.
The two main parties are unlikely to experience any drastic changes over the next year, despite both party leaders finding themselves under discussion.
Regardless of the persistent rumblings of discontent, there appears to be little chance of a serious challenge to Abela’s leadership of the Labour Party, with potential challengers likely to be biding their time until after the general election.
Things could change if the party finds itself dealing with an unforeseen hurdle – a catastrophic showing in opinion polls, for instance, or the early return of Roberta Metsola to local politics. But Abela is widely expected to lead the party into the next election.
Meanwhile, Bernard Grech has solidified his position at the helm of the Nationalist Party following June’s MEP elections, despite the party’s modest showing. But Grech will continue to operate in the shadow of a possible Metsola return, although this appears to be unlikely to happen anytime soon, with two years remaining on her mandate as European Parliament president.
The PN’s first order of business in the new year is likely to be reaching a decision on its general secretary, with Michael Piccinino temporarily returning to the role following the death of Karl Gouder.
What appears certain is that the new year will usher in new players across Malta’s political landscape, with a new progressive political party set to be formally launched over the coming weeks.
It will be joined by at least one more party, this time steered by former AD leader Arnold Cassola.
Whether either of these parties will leave a lasting mark on Maltese politics remains to be seen. Other new political movements that were formed in recent years were unable to move beyond the political fringes.
New parties may well breathe new life into debates over social issues that have been dormant for a while. Top of the list is assisted dying, which appears to have already received tacit approval from the health minister and large swathes of the public.
Meanwhile, a watered-down abortion bill introduced earlier this year did little to assuage the pro-choice campaigners and international experts alike.
European crisis
Away from the local lens, Malta is unlikely to remain entirely untouched by the seismic developments taking place outside its shores.
With the wars in Ukraine and Middle East rumbling on and Donald Trump set to take office in the US, European politics is likely to be characterised by talk of beefing up the EU’s security structures. This would likely reignite the debate over Malta’s neutrality that marked the early part of this year’s European Parliament election campaign.
Europe itself is entering the new year facing growing political uncertainty as its two main economic players, Germany and France, were thrust into a political crisis after their respective governments collapsed.