Former PL and PN general secretaries Jason Micallef and Austin Gatt tell Mark Laurence Zammit that consolidation and a wide appeal are the only ways small parties can hope to break the two-party dominance.

At least two new political parties are expected to be launched in the coming weeks in a bid to challenge the country’s two-party dominance.

A new progressive party – Partit Malta Progressiva (PMP) – will comprise people with centre-left liberal leanings from other political parties. Labour’s former policymaker Silvan Agius and MEP Cyrus Engerer are two of the brains behind it.

Meanwhile, former Green party leader Arnold Cassola is also launching a new party in January called Momentum. Activist NGO Il-Kollettiv has hinted at plans to establish another party.

The new parties aim to end the decades-old Labour and Nationalist dominance. However, questions remain about whether the fragmentation among these third parties will help or further divide the vote.

One Labour insider argued: “Their selling point can’t just be that they’re new or different from PL-PN. People expect more than that to vote for you.”

A PN official, who also asked to be anonymous, said such new entrants into the political scene cannot market themselves as a party for minorities.

“If the party is just about minorities’ rights, your voter pool is already less than what you need to govern,” he said. “It’s literally in the name itself – not a majority.”

The new parties must find charismatic leaders who appeal to a vast number of voters, and not just the ones who are upset with the big parties- Jason Micallef

Both former PN and PL strategists Austin Gatt and Jason Micallef agreed that the majority of people will vote for the party they feel is strong enough to govern, not just for the party strong enough to elect a seat in parliament.

Gatt argues people will always gravitate towards a party that can provide stability and security.

More importantly, the primary issue on people’s minds is not the environment or the traffic, but the economy, the former minister said.

“People need to know they will have enough money to provide for a comfortable life for themselves and their families.

“Focusing an election campaign solely on any other issue is likely to push voters away, as was the case when the PN focused its campaign solely on corruption in 2017. It wasn’t enough for people.”

Two former party general secretaries – PL’s Jason Micallef (left) and PN’s Austin Gatt – weigh in on the new parties’ situation. File photos

Micallef, who was recently appointed special delegate on the implementation of the PL electoral manifesto, added: “In the privacy of their homes, Maltese people think: How can one MP from a small party make my life better?”

The new parties must find charismatic leaders who appeal to a vast number of voters, and not just the ones who are upset with the big parties, he added.

“I also don’t understand how the new parties can be led or fronted by people who have been attempting to get elected through other means over the span of several elections but always failed to win the trust of enough people,” Micallef said.

The more the merrier? Not really

The new parties are positioning themselves as alternatives to voters dissatisfied with both PL and PN. But the more parties on the ballot, the less likely for one to walk through parliament’s door come next election.

“The risk is that each ends up eating from the others’ voter pool and none will get enough to be elected,” Micallef said.

Gatt agreed, arguing the only way a third party can succeed in a country with a limited electorate base is if the different groups unite. If everyone is going to set up their own party because they cannot compromise on one or two issues, then it is almost impossible for any third party to get a seat in parliament.

PL and PN insiders also advise against the danger of overestimating the anti-establishment sentiment.

In June’s MEP election, votes to third-party or independent candidates skyrocketed to 33,103 while the number of non-voters or invalid votes increased to 110,000.

There is indeed a strong sense of discontent among voters, but the big parties will address those issues in the election campaigns and the widening gaps of people who seem upset with their party now will likely narrow again- Jason Micallef

But big party insiders argue there is no guarantee those people will automatically flock to the smaller parties come the general election.

“There is indeed a strong sense of discontent among voters, but the big parties will address those issues in the election campaigns and the widening gaps of people who seem upset with their party now will likely narrow again,” Micallef said.

PN insiders also believe most voters who are currently unhappy with either of the big parties will likely sway back to their party when the election comes around.

“There are issues that the big parties need to address, like the environment and transport,” Gatt added.

“But if they do address them effectively, then most voters will go back to them, as the majority of people will want to support a strong party.”

So what can the new parties actually do to get elected?

'Focus on one district'

Gatt said there is a simple and basic, but effective strategy: focus on one district.

Any party to set foot in parliament needs to secure 16.6 per cent of number one votes in any of the 13 districts. With the current number of registered voters, that would mean each party needs to get around 4,000 votes in one district.

For PN and PL, getting 4,000 votes in any given district is easy, but for small parties it is highly improbable. To put this into perspective, in 2022, ADPD only secured 4,747 votes nationwide.

But if the smaller parties focus their energy and resources in one or two districts, they could well reach a quota and secure a parliamentary seat.

“Elections need face-to-face contact with electors and small parties with few candidates do not have the luxury to spread themselves thin all over Malta and Gozo,” Gatt said.

“In these circumstances, a concentrated campaign strategy, focusing on a single district where candidates can actively engage with every household, would significantly enhance your electability.”

There are issues that the big parties need to address, like the environment and transport- Austin Gatt

Although Malta’s electoral system – the single transferable vote system – in principle favours electing people from different parties by cross-voting, a deeply ingrained bi-party political culture has prevented this from happening.

There have also been calls to reform the constitutional provisions that make it more difficult for smaller parties and independent candidates to get elected. Both Micallef and Gatt agree that despite all its flaws, the electoral system works, as it is fair and ensures the stability of government.

It is not any more unusual than systems in the US, Gatt said, where a party could get the highest number of votes and still not govern. It is a system that “worked” even when the Maltese political scenario had more than two parties, up to the early 1960s.