As the days of social distancing turn into weeks, and when those weeks turn into months, many will begin to question whether normality will ever be restored. At the time of writing, the end seems to be a long way away. The number of active cases is, once again, larger than the number of closed cases. Europe is now the epicentre of this global scourge.
And yet, it may be easy to answer the original question; things can never go back to the way they were before the pandemic. All pandemics prove to be what political scientists term ‘critical junctures’ – or rather, those periods in time when political structures are more open to change.
It is not surprising that authoritarian states and their spokespersons react so negatively at even the slightest hint of criticism. The bullying tactics betray innate insecurities and anxieties. They unmask their modus operandi.
Yet, all societies will be affected. Critical junctures force political structures to change by responding to the evolving situation or addressing the challenges of the aftermath.
Historical records support this view. Frank Snowden, a professor-emeritus of history at Yale University and author of Epidemics and Society: From the Black Death to the Present, looks at how such outbreaks shape society and its politics. Indeed, he discovers that such epidemics alter social relations radically since they expose social vulnerabilities and inadvertently expose political weaknesses.
Snowden argues that pandemics also affect people on an individual level. Every person will be confronted with their own mortality. This in itself is an inescapable fact, yet when facing a virus with several unknowns, fear increases exponentially. Social media does little to allay fears. In this regard, the advice given by mental health professionals to limit screen time is sound and much-needed. Every person will also begin to question their relationship with their society and their environment.
Perhaps, COVID-19 laid bare the paradoxes of contemporary life. On the one hand, the world remains interconnected. As with other previous pandemics, this interconnectedness made the spread of the diseased possible. On the other hand, the interconnectedness of our societies is fuelled by rampant selfishness. The lack of common decency was laid bare for all to see.
Quarantine had to be enforced; people had to be reminded to wash their hands and cover their mouths when coughing while some supermarkets in Europe had to implement a rationing system since essential items flew off the shelf. Common courtesy is not so common.
Many seem to be unaware that the European Union has minimal competencies in the health sector
There were, as ever, silver linings. It took a pandemic to make us realise how invaluable the work of health workers is to our society. These individuals live out their vocation daily. They put themselves at risk of illness to ensure that we remain healthy. They are led by very capable teams of experts who deserve all our praise and admiration.
Perhaps we’ve also realised that other professions are taken for granted. They include teachers, educators, delivery persons and supermarket operators who often work over seven days a week. Perhaps, this crisis will help us realise the real value and dignity of work.
Nonetheless, when this is over, there are likely to be political and economic consequences on a regional and a global level. The current situation, perhaps, offers a glimpse of what we might expect.
Firstly, despite the claims that globalisation creates a borderless world, the current crisis proved that borders have some uses. By shutting down borders and using such borders to screen people, governments have tacitly acknowledged that these still serve some function – whether this is real or symbolic matters little.
Secondly, restrictions in various countries have led some to organise different initiatives to encourage and motivate others amid fear and death. In Italy and Spain, citizens proudly display their national flags and sing popular songs from their balconies. Patriotism and nationalism have offered an opportunity to show defiance in the face of the unknown, which knows no borders.
Thirdly, an excessive amount of criticism has been levelled against the European Union and its response. Though there have been some shortcomings on its side, many seem to be unaware that the European Union has minimal competencies in the health sector. In politics, however, perception often matters more than reality. These perceptions, coupled with rising nationalistic sentiment, are likely to shape the post-pandemic world.
Lastly, there seems to be an atmosphere of wartime. In an excellent interview on BBC’s Newsnight, Jonathan Sacks, former Chief Rabbi of the United Hebrew Congregations of the Commonwealth, delivered some prescient insights. He noted that there is a “renewal of the ‘we’” and a resurgence of social solidarity reminiscent of the “wartime spirit.”
Nonetheless, we have also seen the crisis bring out the worst in others. It is hard to forget the thoughtless actions of those who still go out despite the various warnings by health authorities.
In Malta, many watch incredulously as some deliberately disregarded the advice of health professionals, thereby putting themselves, their families and our health system at risk.
Ultimately, it is each of these instincts, when translated into political action, which will determine the make-up of the post-pandemic world. There will be economic repercussions, and some governments are likely to be destabilised.
At this critical juncture, our instincts, perceptions and responses matter a great deal. The resilience of our institutions will be tested like never before.
André DeBattista is researcher in politics and international relations