Will Taiwan, US inch closer as China changes guard?

Exploit your enemy's weaknesses. Strike when your enemy is divided. Classic guerilla tactics employed by Mao Zedong and his Communist forces to wrest power in China more than 50 years ago.

But now, some in China fear arch-rival Taiwan and the United States may be stealing from their bag of tricks.

Viewing Beijing as distracted by a contentious leadership reshuffle, Taipei and Washington may be seizing the chance to bolster their own relationship while the island inches towards independence, they say.

"The United States could see it as a chance to draw relations with Taiwan closer," said Liu Jianfei, a professor at the Central Party School's Institute of International Strategic Studies.

"And on the Taiwan side, the (ruling) Democratic Progressive Party could also see it as a chance to push ahead with independence activities," he said.

Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian stoked the flames at the weekend when he said the self-governed island would "consider if we need to take our own path, the Taiwan path" if China did not respond to goodwill gestures from the island.

Two US reports, one by the Pentagon and the other by a congressional commission, raised alarms about China as a military threat, particularly to Taiwan.

And reports emerged that the United States was considering allowing Taiwan to take delivery of key missiles and submarines soon.

A year ago, those reports would have elicited a caustic response from China, which views Taiwan as a renegade province that must be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.

But this time, while China dismissed the US reports as groundless and called Chen's speech irresponsible, scholars in China noted the reactions were muted on the whole.

Beijing may be making a deliberate effort to keep US relations on a warming track.

But there is speculation that China's leaders simply have their hands full with the leadership transition - and hope to avoid any fractious internal debate over Taiwan policy.

"Not really reacting could just be a normal policy choice," said an international studies expert in Beijing.

"Another possibility is that they are deliberately neglecting the negative trend because they are focused on domestic politics. They want to avoid disputes arising among themselves over policy issues," said the scholar, who asked not to be named.

In any other year, policy disputes run rife in the Communist Party's upper echelons, he said.

During this sensitive period, the atmosphere was primed for even more conflict in debates getting under way between leaders at their summer retreat at the seaside resort of Beidaihe.

Unity and stability have become watchwords as the country undergoes wrenching economic changes and the Party struggles to become more relevant.

On Monday, the front page of the Communist Party's mouthpiece newspaper, the People's Daily, implored readers to "stress the public interest, stress unity, stress stability" ahead of the key Party congress scheduled for later this year.

The appearance of the article was seen by some as evidence of disunity among the leadership. "It means that the situation is exactly the opposite," said Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of the French Centre for Research on Contemporary China in Hong Kong.

Cabestan and the international relations scholar agreed that a debate over Taiwan policy was not among Chinese President Jiang Zemin's top priorities as he prepares to step down as party chief at the critical congress to be held in the next few months.

"Right now, having a smooth power transition and putting his theory of the 'Three Represents' into the Party charter are more important to him," the scholar said.

Jiang's "Three Represents" theory lays the foundation for entrepreneurs to be let into the Party, but has met some opposition and left many Party cadres puzzling over its meaning.

While Taiwan and the United States could eke out minor diplomatic gains against China while its leadership is preoccupied with domestic battles, analysts said the two would be kept in check by stronger, long-term interests.

The United States and China are key trading partners, and Taiwan and the mainland have seen their fates become increasingly intertwined in recent years as Taiwan businessmen invested up to $100 billion on the mainland.

"The mainstream hopes for stable relations across the Taiwan Straits," said Fan Xizhou, Director of Taiwan Research Institute at Xiamen University in Fujian province, directly across from the island.

Taiwan's Defence Ministry said this week it expected China to take a harder line towards the island ahead of the 16th Communist Party congress, during which older leaders are expected to step aside for a younger generation.

But with Jiang due to visit the United States in the next few months, Beijing and Washington would be keen to keep relations positive.

And above all, the bottom line on the issue of Taiwan remained unchanged by the Party's internal squabbling: China stands by its threat to attack if Taiwan declares independence or drags its feet indefinitely on unification talks. "If they act too extremely, China will have a strong reaction," Liu said.