I know it’s become something of a tradition but, after a lot of deep thought and careful consideration, I’ve decided not to go ahead with my annual Premier League predictions this season.

I just can’t face up to the thought of exposing my football beliefs on these pages only to set myself up for abuse, laughter and finger pointing when my predictions invariably go tits-up by October. Sitting back and waiting to be wrong is just too stressful. So, no more, that’s it, I’m out.

Of course, I jest. I live for things going tits-up and I thrive on the mockery. It’s my very reason for being, and I wouldn’t want to deprive you of the opportunity to point out my failings.

And, let’s face it, a start to the season without Calvert’s errant predictions would feel incomplete – like Christmas fixtures without Jürgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola complaining about the lack of a winter break. Something would be missing.

So let’s stop the waffle and get stuck right in: the teams that will struggle this season are Fulham, Bournemouth, Brentford, Leeds and Southampton.

Fulham were magnificent in winning the Championship title, but they always seem to struggle with the quality upgrade that comes with life in the top flight. Bournemouth are a decent side, but barring some drastic last-minute mega-transfers, lack the depth needed for survival.

Southampton have not been their old selves for a while now and don’t seem to be doing very much other than treading water. And you can only do that for so long before tiring and going under. The fact that Leeds no longer have Marco Bielsa squatting on the touchline may not be a bad thing as his magic had all but vanished. But you can’t lose players like Raphinha and Philips without suffering the consequences.

And Brentford were excellent last season, defying the odds to stay up comfortably. But this time round, especially without Cristian Eriksen, second season syndrome is likely to kick in.

So which of that bunch are heading for the drop? Well, in IMHO (who said you can’t be old and trendy?), it will be Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth. Sorry chaps, but that’s what it says in these congealing tea leaves.

Notice how I don’t have Nottingham Forest down for struggling despite being newly promoted? That’s because I am very impressed by their signings, especially Dean Henderson and Jesse Lingard, and I think they have the best young player in the entire Premier League in Brennan Johnson. One team that comes up nearly always surprises, and this season that will be Forest.

Meanwhile, Brighton, Aston Villa, Leicester, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Wolves will be the mid-table sides, not pulling up any trees on the one hand but neither dipping their toes into the deep, dark horror of the relegation pool.

There are two teams, meanwhile, which have me all befuddled. Namely, Newcastle and Everton.

Newcastle had a cracking, European place-worthy second half of last season, and you would, instinctively, expect them to push on from there. But considering the incredible wealth in the boardroom, they haven’t really made any sit-up-and-take-notice signings so far. And that I find a little unnerving.

Everton had a torrid time last season, only saving their skins in the penultimate game. But Frank Lampard is better than that, and he has had more time to work with his squad. But like the team from St James’s Park, Everton have not exactly been lively in the transfer market, and losing Richarlison is going to sting.

With both those clubs it’s almost impossible to tell which way this season will unfold, with everything from relegation to a challenge for a Champions League place a possibility.

But, as this is all about predictions and not fence sitting, I am going to have the pair of them finishing in the top half, but not quite in Europe. (Although there are so many UEFA competitions these days, you really have to put in the effort not to qualify.)

That leaves the usual suspects fighting it out for the top six and, of course, the title itself: Spurs, Arsenal, the two Manchester teams, Liverpool and Chelsea.

I can’t really see Arsenal making the top four. Signing Jesus for a little divine inspiration was a great move, but I still have my doubts about Arteta and whether he is the man to make things consistently tick.

Man United will be better this season – which isn’t really saying a great deal. Erik ten Hag is starting to make his mark and will no doubt build a team capable of at least not being persistently average. But turning a supertanker of mediocrity around in just a few weeks of pre-season is impossible, and more time will be needed. So, it’s one of the lesser European competitions for Old Trafford fans again.

It’s one of the lesser European competitions for Old Trafford fans again

I’m not sure what to make of Chelsea at the moment. They had a spanner thrown in the works last season with that whole “your owner, who has been welcome in England for a decade, is suddenly the devil incarnate” thing. Will they suffer a lingering hangover from that turmoil? Possibly. But they should still be good enough for a top four spot.

As should Spurs. Unlike some other managers, Antonio Conte isn’t in the Premier League for fame and fortune – he has those already. He is at Tottenham because he believes he can break their silverware jinx. The addition of Richarlison alongside Kane and Son makes the Spurs front line one of the most potent in the entire division, if not Europe. And that should guide them back into the top four, if not three. And possibly a domestic cup, if Conte takes them seriously.

And that just leaves two little teams to discuss, and it’s the same two that just about every person on the planet thinks will be fighting for the title – City and Liverpool. Given their recent history, their managers and current squads, it is almost mentally impossible to contemplate the title going to anyone else.

Klopp may have lost Mane, but Darwin Nunez looks like a ready-made, boil-in-the-bag replacement who may actually be a better all-round player. With Salah still going strong and a host of talented kids pushing for the first team, Liverpool are in a very happy place and will be desperate to snatch the title back after last season’s near miss. Over at City, there can be no accusations that Pep has overspent this summer. They have offloaded Sterling, Jesus and Zinchenko and only brought in two players for an overall net profit on transfers.

But the fact that the two players they have brought in happen to be Kalvin Phillips and a certain Erling Haaland is outrageously good business that changes the team’s entire dynamic – a midfield destroyer and one of the world’s top strikers.

Without those two, City were unplayable at times last season. With those two, they could be unplayable most of the time.

So which of these two teams will ultimately end up top of the pile? Well, I would love to say Liverpool, just to give us neutrals a bit of variety and keep things interesting.

But I can’t see past City being crowned champions. Unless something entirely unexpected and incredible happens, the new signings combined with City’s overall strength of depth will see Pep finishing the season with a bigger smile on his face. Yet again. It’s not what I want, but it’s what I think will happen.

So there you have it. Tuck this piece of paper away somewhere safe so you can quote it back to me with smirking glee in a few months’ time.

You know you want to.

E-Mail: James@Quizando.com

Twitter: @Maltablade