Winning together

Nobody could have guessed. Nobody knew how the EU enlargement time-table would finally pan out. Who could have figured out that the EU referendum that AD had secured for the country would sit cheek-by-jowl with a general election? Who could have hoped for the unprecedented gains in support the Greens would make?

AD put its head down and got to work. We have been more than adequately rewarded for our efforts. Our work over the past 14 years has been fully acknowledged by the whole country. We have gone from strength to strength. We have never been better than we are today.

It is no consolation. The full burden of responsibility for the country's fate at this historic moment seems to pivot on AD. Its very success has increased its responsibility in an unforseeable and disproportionate manner.

Ironically, it may have been our very success that made some PN candidates prevent an alliance. Eliminating AD altogether has been tried three times before, three dismal failures against all expectations. AD refuses to die. It is very likely that AD will push both the other parties under the 50 per cent mark in the next election. What will happen then?

Contrary to what most people still believe, the Constitution no longer provides for a 50 per cent plus one compensation mechanism. It was cobbled again in 1996 to make the compensation work also under the 50 per cent mark. Which-ever of the other parties wins in the vote shootout, wins power. The PN - 48 per cent and the MLP - 49 per cent; the MLP governs. Never mind that AD + PN is 52 per cent. Undemocratic? It is the way the other two parties like it.

Never mind that three per cent of the vote is equivalent to two or three seats in parliament. If you really want to laugh send it up to 15 per cent and the MLPN to 85 per cent between them and in terms of the Constitution we could end up with a government leading the country with 43 per cent of the vote. No problem, it is only AD being cheated.

Or is it? The EU membership issue has created a new scenario: AD will grow. The only way for the yes lobby to make sure it takes out insurance on EU membership is to elect at least one Green MP. In effect, one Green MP will bring to the balance the nationwide Green vote. Leaving Greens out of the count swings between very risky and suicidal for anyone with any ambition for EU membership.

If the PN bags the many thousands of votes to make 48 per cent of the total vote, it could still be many thousands of votes wasted unless AD votes are made to count also. With the PN at 48 per cent, the only way for the pro-EU camp to succeed is to have AD elected to parliament. The fatal compensation mechanism in the Constitution will not be allowed to work because in a three-party scenario a majority is formed by a majority of seats. If AD votes are made to count in the final reckoning, EU membership is assured. The only way to secure this is to have at least one Green MP elected.

AD is probably the only party that most people really want. The others are the parties they want less and want least. Concentrating on Greens making sure they have enough number one votes to stand the count in the election means they will "inherit" their fair share of number two votes. It should be a landslide. Everybody who wants Malta to achieve EU membership can safely and absolutely vote Green number two to make sure.

What if the balance is 49 per cent for the PN, 48 per cent for the MLP and AD gets three per cent? It means that the yes vote is 52 per cent. If your voting AD has elected a Green MP, then you have EU membership and the beginning of the end of the two-party system. In 2008 there will be five Green MPs. Who loses? It is win, win, win.

There is only one if to all this: can this message get across to the people it must reach in good time to make a difference? If you can confirm all this for yourself, what are you doing about it? Do not panic about AD having too many number one votes, panic about making sure AD has a sea of number two votes.

Right now all AD candidates and supporters are canvassing on the 10th and eighth districts, our target districts for four years already.

Our plan has given us three councillors in the target districts in the last local council elections. In 2002 we came close in Pembroke - 9.3 per cent, and St Julian's - 7.4 per cent. We are building on sound foundations and EU membership, political sanity and the end of zero-sum politics is within our grasp. The country will never have a better chance. Everybody in the pro-EU camp in these districts can and must give a hand.

Dr Vassallo is chairman of Alternattiva Demokratika - The Green Party

www.alternattiva.org.mt