Yes vote, PN, lead 2 to 1 among decided voters

Of those who have already made up their minds about how they would vote in the March referendum on European Union membership, those who intend to vote Yes outnumber those who intend to vote No by more than two to one, according to an opinion poll carried out for The Sunday Times by Professor Mario Vassallo.

Similarly, among those who have decided how they would vote in a general election, those who say they will vote PN outnumber those who say they will vote for the MLP by more than two to one.

A relative majority of 47.7% of the 300 persons interviewed by telephone for the opinion survey would vote Yes in the referendum.

Of those interviewed, 22.3% would not vote in favour, while 6% would not tell how they would vote. Of the remainder, 22.3% were undecided and 1.7% said they would abstain.

As if these findings were not favourable enough to the Yes camp and particularly to the Nationalist government, which conducted the long negotiations leading to formal membership on May 1, 2004, the survey also found that 42.7% would vote for the PN if an election were to be held tomorrow, while only 19.3% said they would vote for the Malta Labour Party. Three per cent said they would vote for Alternattiva Demokratika.

However, 17.7% were undecided, 11.7% did not want to divulge their voting intentions, and 5.7% said they would abstain.

Interestingly, however, when those surveyed were asked how they would vote if the MLP were to change its stance and favour EU membership, definitive PN voters dropped to 38.7%, that is, by four percentage points, while definitive MLP voters dropped even more sharply, by 5.3 percentage points, to 14%. AD support fell by a third, from 3% to 2%.

On the other hand, while those who would not tell dropped slightly, to 10%, those who would be undecided rose sharply, from 17.7% to 27.3%. Abstentions, too, would rise from 5.7% to 8%.

Contrary to a widely-held impression, the survey found that of those who intend to vote in favour of joining the EU, only 1.4% intend to vote for the MLP in the coming elections, while only 1.5% of those who intend to vote against joining will vote for the Nationalist Party.

Other findings reveal that 70.3% of those surveyed stated that they felt informed about the EU, while only 29.7% did not feel informed. Regarding the outcome of negotiations, 16.7% stated there were highly satisfied, 36% that they were satisfied, 24.67% replied 'yes and no', while 20.3% and 2.3% stated that they were 'not satisfied' and 'absolutely not satisfied' respectively.

Asked specifically about the financial deal obtained by Malta at the Copenhagen summit, 14.7% said they were highly satisfied, 37.3% were satisfied, 20% said 'yes and no', while 24.3% and 3.7% replied 'not satisfied' and 'absolutely not satisfied' respectively.

Participants were also asked about the timing of the general elections, the reliability of party pronouncements on the EU and which newspapers they read.

Asked to comment on the findings, Professor Vassallo said: "This study suggests that, as things stand now, there is a very close alignment between voters' intentions in respect of the EU issue and party allegiance. This is evident from the fact that, in the current scenario, very few voters said that they would vote for a party that does not confirm what they would have voted for in the referendum.

"At the same time it appars that the EU issue has made just under 10% of voters who would otherwise be still undecided, to go for the pro-EU option. If this were to disappear as a major issue, the number of undecided, or floating voters, would increase substantially. One just wonders whether more undecided voters are going to be similarly attracted.

"Conversely, it is very difficult to imagine what 'new' specific issues could come to the fore if, by some chance, the EU issue were to lose its current significance as practically the only issue on which political debate in Malta is being waged at present. What is certain is that the final outcome of both referendum and election is bound to be determined by what the large number of floating voters will decide to do at the ballot box."