The European Commission has presented the 27 EU member states with five potential scenarios for the future of Europe. 

The scenarios are laid out in a white paper imagining what the EU could look like in 2025 and range from "carrying on" to "nothing but the single market" to "doing much more together". 

A copy of the white paper, which was meant to be unveiled later today, was leaked to Brussels-based news site Politico.eu. The document has been launched ahead of the upcoming Rome Summit that will mark 60 years since the beginning of the European project. 

It calls for member states to consider the five different scenarios as a form of thought experiment, not as detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions.

The white paper sticks to neutral language and ostensibly has no favourites among the scenarios - though the Juncker Commission's preferences are not too hard to identify. 

Predictions for the second scenario - "Nothing but the single market" - for instance, warn of a "race to the bottom", a failure to conduct trade deals, trouble agreeing on worker mobility rules and "major" vulnerabilities for the single currency.  

By contrast, scenario number five - "Doing much more together" - imagines an EU in 2025 which "continues to lead the global fight against climate change", speaks as one on trade and develops a strong focus on innovation and research.  

Negatives are limited to the caveat that "there is the risk of alienating parts of society which feel that the EU lacks legitimacy or has taken too much power away from national authorities." 

The document acknowledges that many Europeans have come to consider the EU as "either too distant or too interfering in their day-to-day lives," with the bloc having fallen short of the expectations of many. 

It is frank in its assessment of Europe's future prospects, saying that global demographics mean that "Europe's place in the world is shrinking", with the continent projected to be the world's oldest by 2030 and that its "economic power is also forecast to wane."

Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Photo: Reuters

A summary of the five scenarios presented by the Juncker's Commission:

1. Carrying On

This could be considered the 'default' position. Under this scenario, the EU sticks to its current agenda, updating and withdrawing legislation as the situation arises and making "incremental" progress on improving the functioning of the single currency. 

EU member states deepen defence cooperation, most notably with regard to counter-terror operations, and negotiate trade deals as a bloc.

The scenario envisages cheaper electricity bills and high-speed internet throughout member states, but also more restricted travel, with Europeans "mostly" able to travel across borders without checks and longer waiting times at airports and train stations due to reinforced security. 

Pros and cons: Citizen's rights are upheld and the EU's unity is upheld. But major disputes can reveal fissures and it will take collective resolve to help close the gap between citizens' expectations and reality. 

2. Nothing but the single market

This scenario envisages an EU which gradually refocuses on the single market, with plans to create common migration, security and defence policies set aside. 

As a result, the free movement of workers and services is "not fully guaranteed" and member states, unshackled by EU environmental and consumer regulation, step up competition for business. 

The single currency is put under significant strain by growing divergence, and EU trade deals with its partners falter. 

Pros and cons: Differences must often be resolved bilaterally and citizens' rights may become restricted. The EU becomes simpler to understand but also less able to act in many sectors, with the risk of upsetting citizens' expectations. 

3. Those who want more, do more

This revives the idea of a "two-speed Europe", with member states which are more keen on deeper integration being given the freedom to do so in areas such as defence, internal security and taxation. 

This scenario envisages an EU in 2025 in which a core group of member states strengthen police and justice cooperation and jointly investigate money laundering, drug trafficking and other such crimes. 

Within this core group, tax harmonisation rules are strengthened and a common business law code allows firms to operate easily across borders within these member states. EU-related citizen rights will vary from one country to the another.

Pros and cons: Questions are asked about the transparency of different layers of decision-making. The gap between expectations and delivery starts to close among the core group. 

4. Doing less more efficiently

Instead of broadening its remit, the European Union focuses on key priority areas and moves faster there, to the detriment of others. 

This scenario sees the EU step up its work in innovation, trade, security, migration and border management, among others, by 2025. Trade deals in these sectors are concluded quickly and an EU coast guard fully takes over managing the EU's external borders. All asylum claims are processed by a centralised agency, rather than by individual member states. 

On the other hand, the EU takes a step back from the health, regional development and state aid control sectors. Member states are given more freedom in setting environmental, consumer and social standards, and the EU is less involved in countries' employment policies. 

Pros and cons: A clearer division of responsibilities makes it easier for citizens to understand what the EU can and cannot do, but member states find it hard to agree upon a list of priorities and sectors they should set aside. 

5. Doing much more together

The 'all or nothing' approach. This scenario envisages member states agreeing to ever-deeper union across all policy areas.

It envisages a European Defence Union by 2025, with member states working together on migration and climate change and making a concerted effort to complete digital, energy and service single markets. Capital markets become fully integrated across EU member states and within the eurozone there is increased fiscal, social and taxation cooperation. 

Pros and cons: The EU becomes much faster at taking decisions and citizens have more rights under EU law. However, citizens may feel aggrieved at the amount of power taken away from national authorities.