A geography researcher has challenged the country’s ranking in a world risk index, with new observations of the islands’ vulnerability to natural hazards.

There have been no major earthquakes or tsunamis within living memory in Malta, and the island has for years been listed as the “second safest country” to visit. This is according to a world risk index for natural disasters calculated by the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University.

However, for researcher Geoff Main, Malta appears “all too frequently” among countries at lowest risk in the yearly UN index, set up in 2011. His critique on how Malta’s position is calculated revolves around the island’s land area, a growing tourist population and “incomplete historical records”.

Mr Main, who has researched volcanic risk perceptions on the island of Tenerife, is currently analysing awareness of natural hazards in the Maltese islands for a PhD degree with the Department of Geography and Environmental Science at Liverpool Hope University.

Speaking at a recent seminar on hazard awareness and vulnerability of tourism destinations in the Maltese islands, he said the size and frequency of natural disasters rarely determine the extent of losses. Development of certain policies could reduce hazard exposure, even for major events such as earthquakes and the large waves which sometimes follow, known as tsunamis.

A plume of gas and volcanic ash from Mount Etna in Sicily could have serious repercussions for Malta’s civil aviation, water and electricity supply, transport and telecommunications, agriculture and critical infrastructure. Photo: Shutterstock

He gave another example: a volcanic ash plume from Mount Etna, only 200 kilometres away from Malta International Airport, could have serious repercussions for Malta’s civil aviation, water and electricity supply, transport and telecommunications, agriculture and critical infrastructure.

“It would take four to six hours to reach Malta, allowing the authorities to prepare an appropriate response, assuming appropriate protocols are in place,” he said.

“Buildings kill people, not earthquakes per se,” he added.

But Malta has yet to come up with a national annex for defining seismic hazard parameters in building codes.

Drought is becoming a “very frequent hazard” in the Maltese islands, and its impact on future tourism remains to be seen. Malta is also vulnerable to risk from storms, waterspouts, landslides and surface collapse, Mr Main said.

In a 2010 dissertation for the University of Malta, no fewer than 57 areas where a collapse could happen (or has already) were recorded. Water table depth, changes in surface load and the removal of vegetation all contribute to surface collapse.

Buildings kill people,not earthquakes per se

The seminar was organised jointly by Liverpool Hope University and the University of Malta. Participants included the Malta Tourism Authority, the Critical Infrastructure Protection Unit (Office of the Prime Minister) and the Meteorological Office.

Liverpool Hope University’s Janet Speake, who has academic expertise on urban sustainability, referred to the obligation of researchers to pass on their knowledge to the authorities.

When large-scale disasters happen, the communication network, including internet connection, is “the first thing to go down”, warned Prof. Speake. It is always advisable to keep a battery-powered radio, a torch and spare batteries at hand, so communities can cope better in any natural disaster, she cautioned.

Grafting simple measures into public education programmes could give people the information they need in the right place at the right time, she added, citing potential hazards that tourists and even locals may not be aware of.

For instance, the Marsamxett Harbour side of the interconnecting Tigné Point tunnel and underground car park lies dangerously below a 10 metre coastal contour along low-lying eastern Malta, she said. This could make the tunnel highly vulnerable to an incoming tsunami wave. Most arterial roads to and from Mater Dei Hospital are unlikely to be affected, but access to emergency services in such an event could be hindered by flooding of the tunnel.

Even a seven metre wave striking at Xlendi would have a funnelling effect, rushing up the valley for over a kilometre, with potentially disastrous results.

The threat of tsunami damage to coastal utilities such as power stations and reverse osmosis plants may be more a question of “when” than “if”, the likelihood of such an event being every 400 years or more in this part of the Mediterranean. The last major wave recorded was over 300 years ago.

John Agius, director of the unit for protection of critical infrastructure within the OPM, gave his assurances that if one of Malta’s three reverse osmosis plants were to be damaged in a natural disaster, the infrastructure was in place for the other two to ensure a continued water supply for the population.

A follow-up conference on natural hazard preparedness is expected to be held in Malta next year under Britain’s Higher Education Innovation Fund scheme.

World Risk Index for natural hazards

Every year the World Risk Index, compiled by the Tokyo-based United Nations University (UNU), takes on a different hazard – for instance food security in 2015.

The following year the lens was on infrastructure and logistics. A core finding of the 2016 report was that inadequate infrastructure and weak logistic chains can increase the risk of disastrous consequences in an extreme natural event.

Chief scientist at the UNU institute Dr Matthias Garschagen has noted that sufficient, high-quality infrastructure which is “well-managed institutionally” can prevent the often catastrophic consequences of natural hazards. Critical infrastructure, he said, could reduce the risk of these hazards.

According to World Risk project director Peter Mucke, when it comes to aid measures following extreme natural events, the challenges mostly lie in the ‘last mile’ of the logistics chain: “Organising transportation despite destroyed streets or bridges and ensuring fair distribution when there is a shortage of water, food and shelter.”