As soon as the world began to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine threw the world into further turmoil.

February will mark the first year since the start of the war in Ukraine. So far, this war shows no sign of ending. Perhaps, in the run-up to the invasion, Ukraine had not predicted the extent to which Russia would engage in a land war. But, on the other hand, Russia underestimated the lengths to which the Ukrainians would go to defend their homeland.

Ukrainians demonstrate incredible resilience, earning them much admiration, even from some of their critics. Aided by western intelligence and some help from NATO countries, they have resisted a wholesale takeover which Russia hoped to achieve in a matter of weeks.

On the other hand, Russia has been placed on the defensive, struggling to maintain some of the regions it claimed for itself. It is the most sanctioned country in history, and it can only maintain its position in Ukraine by conscripting reluctant Russians to fight.

When and how the war ends remain in Russian hands, specifically in the Kremlin’s corridors rather than the battlefield. Ukraine has already laid down its red lines; Russia is reluctant to accept these. Perhaps, it can never do so, mainly since Crimea is part and parcel of a Ukrainian deal.

Will Vladimir Putin escalate the war and use chemical or nuclear weapons? Will the top brass in Moscow continue supporting Putin on this venture – a suicide mission if there was ever one? At this stage, these questions can only be answered speculatively. Nonetheless, 2023 will probably reveal the answer to one of them.

The effects of this war will be felt beyond the region. COVID-19 had already begun to disrupt supply chains, thus raising the price of various commodities. In addition, the war and the ensuing sanctions are leading to a veritable energy crisis which will continue to place more pressure on rising prices.

This will affect all, particularly those on median income. However, it may also lead to new political formations, a re-alignment against sanctions and favouring a more conciliatory and detached approach to the Kremlin.

While this may be popular and vote-catching in the short run, mainly if it will alleviate some economic pressures, it may have devastating consequences in the long run.

Joe Biden’s ability to inspire is questionable at best- André DeBattista

It is no secret that totalitarian regimes will feed off any sign of weakness and exploit this. Therefore, it is worth remembering what totalitarianism means, what it stands for and what its origins are. It was first used by Italian dictator Benito Mussolini and summed up in the dictum “Everything in the State, nothing outside the State, nothing against the State”.

This is key to understanding the nature of totalitarianism. It will stop at nothing to ensure its survival and the West does itself no favours by trying to appease it (or, worse, to adopt some of its trappings through cancel culture). It also shoots itself in the foot when it only considers Moscow as a threat. Far cleverer and subtler, Beijing is no less dangerous.

Moscow’s foray into Ukrainian territory has given a new purpose to the idea of the West and allowed it to re-invigorate and redefine itself. Unfortunately, it does so on negative terms, in relation to fear, in the face of violent threats and the prospect of inevitable decline.

In re-appraising its relevance on the world stage, the West may need to confront some of its previous assertions. The war in Ukraine highlights the importance of borders and their role – and why such boundaries should not be violated. It raises the importance of history and how the past has a bearing on the present and the future.

It forces us to look at questions of culture and identity. It has highlighted the importance of an international legal order defined by states and which must be respected by signatories. It does so in the face of an existential threat, making the vacuous debates of wokeness irrelevant and puerile.

Democracies do not engage with such issues at their peril. Sadly, the West also suffers from a profound lack of leadership. The US can no longer be relied upon in this regard.

There are legitimate questions about President Joe Biden’s fitness for office, not least his ability to run again in 2024. He has, so far, proved to be rather disappointing. His main redeeming feature has been that of not being Donald Trump.

The spectre of Trump will loom large. He has indicated that he may see himself as a viable and worthy candidate in the upcoming primaries. Should he succeed, another contest between Trump and Biden will be painful to watch and witness.

Trump’s democratic credentials in the wake of the storming of the Capitol have been severely dented. Yet, Biden’s ability to inspire is questionable at best. The two ageing leaders facing each other in an acrimonious contest will hardly be a sign of a democracy capable of regenerating itself with inspiring and forward-looking leadership.

2023 will be the year to watch as the race for the 2024 election heats up.

André DeBattista is a political writer and academic.