Climate change expert David Attard.

New research by NASA showing sea levels could rise by more than one metre would likely impact Malta, according to a climate change expert.

International Maritime Law Institute director David Attard believes the findings are a cause for concern: “The increase is considerable and could wipe out huge coastal areas and certainly some island states... sea level rise will have a particular effect on the ecology of the coasts, and in the case of Malta, likely impact the whole country.”

Over the years, as temperatures around the world have risen, climate change researchers have kept an eye on one place in particular: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, where six glaciers hang in a precarious balance.

New findings show a massive portion of this ice sheet is on an “unstoppable” decline, meaning predictions on sea level rise would need to be revised upwards.

“The melting of Antarctica provides a great challenge to the climate change diplomats,” said Prof. Attard. “Indeed, as is pointed out, it will lead to sea level rise of serious proportions.”

A projection of how Manoel Island and The Strand, Sliema, above, would look with a 0.5m sea level rise. Artwork: Saviour Formosa, University of Malta

Prof. Attard was the protagonist who helped put climate change on the global agenda. Back in the 1980s, when climate change was described as science fiction, as a young Maltese professor he was busy conceiving a strategy to combat a problem which came to the fore several years later.

His role then as his country’s adviser to the UN was so significant that Malta was subsequently one of only 12 countries to be invited to a secret meeting to draw up the rules. His effort helped establish climate change as ‘the common concern of mankind’ in 1988, in the first UN General Assembly Resolution on Climate Change.

According to Eric Rignot, the lead author of the NASA report, there is enough water frozen in the ice sheet to raise global sea levels by more than one metre if it were to melt.

“It’s passed the point of no return,” he said.

The report is significant because NASA scientists have so far been conservative on issues related to climate change.

Data from the Malta Resources Authority already shows that major coastal areas prone to the impact of sea level rise and storm surges include the northeast coast of Malta, the north and southeast coast of Gozo, as well as the northern coast of Comino.

Martin Galea De Giovanni, chairman of Friends of the Earth (Malta), said the forecasted sea level rise requires a serious effort and commitment by politicians and civil society. “It will not be going away any time soon with a few tree-planting events or petition signing. That would be tantamount to somebody dusting their house while it’s on fire.”

Mr De Giovanni pointed to other island nations like Tuvalu that have realised climate change will almost certainly result in the loss of their nationhood, but he said politicians in Malta have not taken this issue as seriously as they should.

“This is now becoming less about saving the cute polar bear from extinction and more about saving our own skin... politicians and civil society should really stop to think about the implications of such findings,” he added.

The information follows a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) last month that showed “nobody will be untouched by the impacts of climate change”, with the Mediterranean expected to be the worst hit in Europe.

This is now becoming less about saving the cute polar bear from extinction and more about saving our own skin

Apart from the dangers of sea levels rising, repercussions predicted by the IPCC include increased heat waves, desertification, water scarcity, storm surges and flooding.

“They are all on the agenda,” Climate Change Minister Leo Brincat told Times of Malta.

“A technical team is working on draft legislation on climate change which I hope to present in Parliament following consultation with the Opposition and stakeholders during this financial year.”

Mr Brincat acknowledged the NASA report is another “sobering warning” that climate change is real. He said action is required by world leaders representing those countries contributing the most to global warming. He said government has acted, and in 2015 it will deliver power generated by natural gas.

He also said Malta expected to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 per cent by 2020 in comparison to 1990 levels.

Yet Malta is likely to fail its renewable energy targets – so far, only 1.4 per cent of energy comes from renewable sources, showing limited progress since 2005, according to reports on the Europe 2020 targets. Progress on mitigation efforts to prepare the country for the impact of climate change is also limited.

The challenges Malta faces as the planet gets ever hotter...

Desertification

Observed extremes in the maximum and minimum temperatures are typical of desert regions. Trends towards these conditions in Malta lead to the conclusion that a process of desertification is already occurring, according to official data.

Water scarcity

Computed groundwater recharge will decrease dramatically by more than 70 per cent along the south rim of the Mediterranean Sea, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Fresh water resources in Malta are already in limited supply and threatened from over-extraction and pollution from nitrates, according to Mepa.

Drought

Increased episodes and duration of droughts are expected to become longer, according to the Malta Resources Authority, which also predicts increased drought conditions will increase soil salinity, affecting agriculture and food safety.

Floods

Floods are likely to become more common and more intense as regional and seasonal precipitation patterns change, and rainfall becomes more concentrated into heavy rain events, MRA data shows. Lack of storm water harvesting practices and infrastructure already lead to localised flooding incidences, according to Mepa.

Rise in temperatures

From 1985 onwards, all years had a mean temperature higher than the climatic norm, according to NSO figures. The mean temperature for 2004 to 2013 was 8oC higher than recorded from 1974 to 1983. Five out of the 10 warmest years in terms of mean air temperature occurred during the past 10 years. This local rate of change is greater than the global rate of change, according to the MRA.

Sea level rise

A rise in sea level would increase saltwater intrusion into coastal freshwater aquifers, leading to an increased output of potable water from desalination plants. Low-lying coastal areas are at risk from sea level rise.

Heat waves

Increased heat waves means the need for cooling around the Mediterranean will drive up energy costs. Tourism in the Mediterranean, a key industry, will take a hit from 2050, when holidaymakers are expected to choose northern destinations, according to the IPCC.