The situation in Afghanistan can hardly be described as ‘unprecedented’. Nonetheless, this does little to reassure people.

Some have described the ‘War on Terror’ as an absolute failure. Others lamented the lack of state-building; exporting and expecting to construct a model based on the western notion of liberal democracy will always fail. Some blamed US President Joe Biden for withdrawing from Afghanistan too early. All three positions have some merit, though each situation has more nuance to it.

The current political situation cannot be adequately explained by merely focusing on the political aspects. Indeed, economics and history tell us far more about the current situation than political commentary ever could.

Firstly, the economic situation remains crucial. Ironically, during the past 20 years, the Taliban has managed to enrich itself and it is now wealthier than ever. For example, in the fiscal year ending March 2020, the Afghan state brought in $5.55 billion. In comparison, the Taliban netted $1.6 billion.

It raises funds from various illicit activities such as selling opium, which nets approximately $416 million, and mineral extraction, which garners a further $400 million. The Taliban also raises some $160 million in extortion and taxes in areas under its control. A further $240 million is donated by various organisations in the Persian Gulf.

In addition to this, some countries – some even claim to be western allies – covertly fund the Taliban.

It is estimated that the Taliban bankrolls the sum of $500 million from such sources.

Secondly, Afghanistan is an incredibly complex society. Åsne Seierstad’s bestseller, The Bookseller of Kabul, gives us a glimpse of Afghanistan just two weeks after the 9/11 attacks. This brilliant book depicts a society that is complex and multifaceted. It is a society that struggles to make peace with its history of invasion and occupation and to make the concept of democracy work.

Another excellent book, Khaled Hosseini’s novel The Kite Runner, traces the story of Amir and Hassan in the backdrop of recent Afghan history from the fall of the Afghan monarchy, to the Soviet invasion, to the rise of the Taliban.

These two books help debunk some popular myths of Afghanistan as a monolithic country whose problem can be solved with a ‘one size fits all’ solution.

On the contrary, it is a multi-ethnic society living in inhospitable terrain, which struggles to balance a traditional way of life and Westernisation.

Afghan society is complex and multifaceted- André DeBattista

What the West may classify as democratic, modern and progressive may seem, to a different audience, strange, alien and regressive.

Thirdly, a cursory look at the historical record shows that Afghan militias have always trumped foreign occupiers. It has always been a contested and highly fragmented territory characterised by warring tribes. As a result, restoring order has always been an elusive task.

In the 19th century, successive Anglo-Afghan wars – part of what has been termed ‘The Great Game’ – sought to gain influence in this territory. In addition, the rivalry between the British empire and the Russian emptier over this territory was deemed crucial for geopolitical influence in the region. Nonetheless, imperial policy in the area had scant regard for regional realities. Thus, for example, little attention was given to the division of Pashtun tribes. Following 1948, this would give rise to tensions with Pakistan.

Independence came in 1919, following the ratification of the Treaty of Rawalpindi. The Afghan monarchy skilfully administered the territory.

King Amanullah I began to introduce some much-needed reform, including a new constitution. He was also aware of the geopolitical realities and he skilfully manipulated the rivalry between the British empire and the Soviet Union while establishing diplomatic relations with other countries.

The overthrow of the Afghan monarchy and the establishment of a republic proved to be disastrous. Communist factions overthrew the republic in 1978. The threat of tribal insurgency led to an invasion by the Soviet Union.

Though the conflict between the Soviet Union and the mujahideen ostensibly ended in 1988, the agreed settlement was far from adequate. The Afghan economy was in ruins, thousands were killed and approximately six million people became refugees. Moreover, the new government did not settle the differences.

In 1992, Afghanistan descended into another civil war involving tribal factions, including Tajiks, Uzbeks and Pashtuns. Out of the warring groups, one managed to gain overall control of the country – the Taliban.

The Taliban turned Afghanistan into a haven for various organisations, including al Qaeda. It was here that the 9/11 attacks against the United States were planned. The Taliban government collapsed immediately after the first bombings by the United States in 2001. Nonetheless, many of its leaders escaped. The Taliban was defeated but not destroyed.

Furthermore, the new democratic leadership led by the brilliant Hamid Karzai could not solve the country’s endemic problems.

Although there was an attempt to unite regional and tribal leaders, many areas remained beyond the central government’s control.

By 2006, NATO was fighting a Taliban offensive in various parts of the country. In two years, the Taliban controlled 10 per cent of the country while the legitimate government controlled a mere 30 per cent.

The rest was under the control of regional warlords who have now surrendered to the Taliban.

The Taliban’s recent takeover of Afghanistan promises tremendous hardships for the region and the Afghans.

Images of people desperately holding on to the wheels of planes, only to plunge to their deaths some minutes later, are a shocking reminder of how desperate the situation is.

The recent events also show how out of its depth the West is when dealing with the region. Despite ostensibly 20 years of state-building, the Taliban took over with relative ease in less than 90 days, as a US intelligence report had indicated it would if the US withdrew.

Nonetheless, it also shows an incredible lack of judgement by President Biden who has always had strong feelings about the US presence in the region. His decision has now effectively undone much of the work which had been achieved thus far.

The aftermath of the situation in Afghanistan will have profound repercussions in the region and the West’s ability to remain credible, coherent and trustworthy. Unfortunately, so far, things do not look good.

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