By the time you read this, assuming you are reading it hot off the press on Sunday morning, we will be four games into the 51-game, 11-city, 24-team football marathon that is Euro 2020.
Traditionally the opening round of games tend to be cagey affairs and aren’t much of an indicator of what is likely to happen as the tournament progresses. In fact, it wouldn’t be the first time a team has lost their first game and gone on to win the tournament. Or won their first before catching an early flight home.
The Euro 2020 European Football Championship trophy. Photo: Andreas Solaro/AFPSo, with just 360 minutes played so far, and at least 4,230 more to come, I think you will allow me to predict the winner without accusations of waiting to see how things are going first.
Not that my predictions count for much, as you know, but I am not going to let repeated failure stop me from having a go.
I think it’s fairly safe to say that if we are looking for the eventual winners, we can narrow it down to a group of seven: France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Belgium and England.
There is always the chance that someone who really shouldn’t be thinking of winning the tournament will go and do just that. It’s happened before with Denmark and Greece, the latter scooping the title in 2004 with their unique system of defending for 90 minutes and having one shot on target each game.
But given the strength of the big boys this time round, I really can’t see an outsider having much hope of upsetting the odds.
So let’s have a quick look at the magnificent seven.
France are the bookmakers’ favourites and it’s not hard to see why so many people believe the reigning world champions will add another European title to their growing collection of trophies.
Player for player, I think it’s safe to say they have the strongest squad in the tournament – Paul Pogba, N’Golo Kanté, Moussa Sissoko, Kylian Mbappé, Karim Benzema and Antoine Griezmann are all world class.
The thing with France is that they are also one of those teams that has the ability to implode when you least expect it. Sometimes the egos in their squad get out of control and discipline vanishes. That probably won’t happen this time and they will march all the way to the trophy. But there’s always a chance things could go horribly wrong.
Talking of imploding teams, once upon a time Germany was the name everyone wanted to avoid. When they booked their tickets for a tournament, the return flights were always reserved for the day after the final.
However, that aura of invincibility has evaporated in recent years as they have become increasingly vulnerable and unpredictable.
Manager Joachim Löw, in his last tournament in charge, has looked to the past for inspiration, recalling Thomas Müller and Mats Hummels despite them having been in the international wilderness for the last two years.
Löw has also called up wonderkid Jamal Musiala, who opted to play for Germany instead of England earlier this year. Although the 18-year-old could well be in the squad just to gain experience, such is his talent he could turn out to be that one player who takes the tournament by storm.
One manager who can’t be accused of not knowing what he wants is Spain manager Luis Enrique. He named his squad a week early, left out legend Sergio Ramos, and only opted for 24 players instead of the allowed 26.
But while his decisive approach is refreshing, I am not entirely sure the squad is strong enough to go all the way. There are still plenty of quality players in the 24 and their form has been good. However, there isn’t quite the same sparkle to this Spain team as there was with the one that dominated international football between 2008 and 2012, winning back-to-back European Cups with a World Cup neatly sandwiched in the middle.
I am not going to let repeated failure stop me from having a go
Italy go into this tournament with many experts suggesting they don’t have a great chance of winning it. The quarter-finals are apparently being seen as their limit. But how many times have Italy been written off in the past? Frequently. And how do they respond? By winning the darned thing.
There is something about the Italian national team when it comes to tournaments – they invariably become far greater than the sum of their parts. They raise their game in a way that no other nation seems capable of doing.
They may not have the star names that they had in the past, but they arrived at Euro 2020 on the back of a 27-game unbeaten run, including seven straight victories. The simple fact is, with four World Cups and one European Cup under their belt, this is one national team that knows how to win trophies.
For a long time Portugal felt like a one-man team, with that man being a certain Cristiano Ronaldo. These days, while Ronaldo is probably still their most important player, they have strength and depth across the park.
Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes is a beautiful player while the likes of Bernardo Silva, Renato Sanches and Diogo Jota are all playing key roles for big, big teams.
They won the tournament last time out, and I don’t think a defence of their title is entirely beyond them.
In terms of squad strength, Belgium are up there with the very best. Any team with Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku in it is going to do some damage to their opponents. Throw in new star on the block Jérémy Doku, and it gets even more exciting.
They came close in the last major tournament, losing the 2018 World Cup semi-final to eventual winners France. And that seems to be a recurring problem for Roberto Martinez’s team who are becoming perennial nearly men.
I remember during that last World Cup that some pundits were saying it was now or never for this golden generation of Belgian players. That wasn’t exactly true. But I think if you said that this time then you would be pretty close to spot on.
What can I say about England that I haven’t already said? Not a lot. But just in case you missed it, while I believe the squad is probably its strongest in decades, I suspect the manager is the weakest for a very long time.
I mean, what manager picks four right-backs for a tournament, and then, when one of them gets injured in a warm-up match, replaces him with yet another defender; a defender who, it has to be said, has been known to play right-back if needed. It’s like the man has a bloody obsession.
England are blessed with attack-minded talent right now, and everything about the team screams out for that to be exploited. Jack Grealish, Phil Foden, Mason Mount, Harry Kane, Jadon Sancho, Raheem Sterling, Jude Bellingham, Bukayo Saka, Marcus Rashford – that is a devastating array of forwards.
But you watch, Gareth Southgate will try and defend his way to glory, playing two defensive midfielders and generally stifling the creativity and flair of a team that has the ability to dismantle most opponents if given the freedom to play to its strengths.
The only thing I can think of that might take England further than I expect is home advantage. But will that be enough? I doubt it.
“Thanks for sharing your thoughts Calvert, but where’s the prediction?
Okay, fair enough, I’ve kept you in suspense long enough. So here it is: Belgium will win Euro 2020. Or maybe Italy. No, Belgium.
It’s time for this country to stop being the bridesmaid and become the bride, to finally step out of the shadows of their European neighbours and put themselves on the football map once and for all.
They have the players to do it and they have the manager to do it. And this time they actually will do it.
e-mail: james@quizando.com
twitter: @maltablade