Asian equities rose on Tuesday as the volatility that has gripped markets since Russia invaded Ukraine eased slightly, while oil stabilised as the United States contemplates releasing some of its reserves to temper prices.
With no let-up in the assault on its neighbour, Russia has been pummelled by a series of widespread and debilitating sanctions that have sent the ruble crashing, hammered its stock market and forced the central bank to more than double interest rates to 20 per cent.
The crisis has also ramped up fears about supplies of crucial commodities from the region, including wheat and nickel but particularly crude, just as demand surges owing to economic reopenings.
The crisis has also ramped up fears about supplies of crucial commodities from the region, including wheat and nickel but particularly crude, just as demand surges owing to economic reopenings
Talks between Kyiv and Moscow did not appear to yield anything positive, while Vladimir Putin laid out to French President Emmanuel Macron his demands to end the war.They include “the recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, the demilitarisation and denazification of the Ukrainian state and ensuring its neutral status”.
The conflict provides an extra headache for global central banks, who will likely have to recalibrate their plans to tighten monetary policy as they try to support their economies. Some observers have already eased their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s timetable of interest rate hikes. While this month is still tipped to see the first, few now forecast a big move.
Markets analyst Louis Navellier said a drop in Treasury yields “seems to reflect the belief that the US Fed will choose to lighten up their resolve to raise rates and plans to start running off their balance sheet until the impact of the battle in Ukraine, the sanctions on Russia, and even the lifting of most pandemic rules have played themselves out. In the short term, a more dovish monetary policy will be good for the stock market, particularly high valuation tech stocks.”
On Wall Street, the Dow and S&P 500 ended down but off earlier lows, while the Nasdaq was higher. Europe was in the red. But Asia enjoyed another broadly positive day, with Tokyo, Sydney, Taipei, Jakarta and Wellington more than one per cent up while Shanghai, Singapore and Manila were also up. Hong Kong was marginally lower.
But commentators foresaw further volatility to come. “Over the next few weeks we’ll see a lot of gyrations and a potential for an even bigger dip,” Andy Kapyrin at RegentAtlantic Capital LLC told Bloomberg Television. “But that will be a dip worth buying because most geopolitical crises are resolved relatively quickly.”
Oil prices rose but the gains were more subdued than recent days as Joe Biden considers tapping the vast US reserves to help mitigate the potential loss of Russia’s huge output. However, analysts said the measure would not likely be enough and Goldman Sachs has warned prices could hit $115.
“Another round of releasing strategic crude reserves might be a temporary solution to rising prices as long as this Russia-Ukraine crisis isn’t resolved,” Will Sungchil Yun, senior commodities analyst at VI Investment Corp.
A meeting of OPEC and other major producers, including Russia, will be closely followed on Wednesday as they discuss whether to continue with their plan to lift output.