President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to suspend all flights from Europe is an excellent example of how not to draw up contingency plans to deal with a disaster. It contributed nothing to the United States’ stressed health service, especially its under-resourced public testing facilities and caused panic on the world’s stock markets.
By contrast, Malta’s measured steps to contain the virus have been well prepared, conveying the right messages to the public of a competent health service, which has the technical facilities and medical expertise to cope.
Italy’s experience has been a warning of how rapidly the coronavirus epidemic can spiral out of control.
While the circumstances in Malta are not identical to Italy’s, there are similarities – not least that both countries have populations with large proportions of vulnerable elderly people.
Moreover, in Italy it is now quite evident that the virus was introduced “under the radar”, thus avoiding early testing, which, in turn, allowed it to be transmitted rapidly.
If Malta is to avoid the situation prevailing in Italy, the country must maintain high levels of monitoring and testing. Surveillance is crucial if the health authorities are to know where the viruses are circulating.
Malta’s preparations to combat the virus are at a tipping point. The nub of the issue is that good contingency planning must include government-wide disaster preparedness planning for the possibility of a mass outbreak of the epidemic affecting all parts of this highly urbanised, most densely populated country in Europe.
As the medical journal The Lancet put it, governments “will not be able to minimise both deaths… and the economic impact” of coronavirus.
Government-wide contingency planning must be drawn up accordingly to guide these stark choices.
The effects of a pandemic in Malta is not only impacting the health authorities but also every aspect of the economy, education and employment, tourism, and so on.
Ministers and senior officials should form an intrinsic part of the government’s emergency contingencies planning unit under the prime minister.
The government’s focus is clearly now on how best to delay the spread of the virus. The first countermeasure has already been widely advertised: people should wash their hands thoroughly, cover their mouths when sneezing and not struggle into work when ill.
The second involves the government’s own detailed planning, logistics, monitoring and allocation of resources across government departments, in which “contact tracing” is crucial.
Planning is essential. The effective travel ban was a necessary evil but it left thousands of travellers with little time to make alternative arrangements. Malta is now on the cusp of implementing the third counter measure. This is politically, socially and economically harder to implement successfully.
The imposition of mandated quarantine, the isolation, if necessary, of households, towns and villages, the stopping of mass gatherings and more prolonged closure of schools as well as the shuttering of places of work where the infection has been identified may become essential in order to overcoming the virus.
It will necessitate detailed planning by the emergency ministerial contingency unit as well as a delicate balance in implementation to avoid panic and maintain public confidence.
What remains essential is that we heed the health authorities’ advice. We continue seeing way too many self-appointed experts making outrageous claims and statements and indulging in stereotyping of certain nationals, which only serves to create panic.
There is no one solution to coronavirus. And there might not be for the coming days.