Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to send troops to the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine – after recognising them as independent states – is highly dangerous and irresponsible and also goes against international law.
Putin’s latest move inflames an already very volatile situation, kills the Minsk agreement and makes an all-out Russian invasion of Ukraine more likely – a scenario which would have devastating consequences for all Europe. It is no exaggeration to say that Europe is facing its most dangerous security crisis since World War II.
The response from Europe and the US to Russia’s provocation has been swift and commendable. EU sanctions against Russia have been agreed to by the bloc’s top diplomats and they entered into force yesterday.
The EU measures target the 351 Russian lawmakers who voted in favour of Russia’s recognition of the self-proclaimed people’s republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, along with 27 individuals and entities “who threaten Ukrainian territory and sovereignty”.
Banks which finance the Russian military and other operations in the breakaway territories are also hit, trade with Donetsk and Luhansk has been banned and the Russian government’s access to the EU’s capital and financial services markets has been limited.
Additionally, Germany halted the approval process for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia, the US announced a “first tranche” of sanctions targeting Russian entities and individuals and the UK said it would sanction three wealthy individuals and five banks. Australia and Japan have also introduced sanctions against Russia.
Russia’s recognition of the two breakaway republics is even more worrying because it covers the entire Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, far beyond the area currently held by separatist forces. This suggests that a further Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory could well take place imminently – leading to direct clashes between Russian and Ukrainian troops.
It is unclear how much further Putin will go, whether he will order a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, whether he will go on to occupy yet another chunk of Ukrainian territory or whether he will just play for time and continue to destabilise Ukraine through cyberattacks and other means.
Whatever the direction of this conflict, the west should make it clear that, while ruling out direct military confrontation over Ukraine, stronger sanctions are in the pipeline against Russia should Moscow increase its military operations in Ukrainian territory.
It is also important NATO continues to reassure its members such as the Baltic states, Poland and Romania that any violation of NATO territory will trigger the alliance’s mutual security guarantees.
In a speech on Monday, Putin effectively challenged Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state, making the possibility of a diplomatic resolution somewhat remote. However, even at this late state in the crisis, the West must not give up on a diplomatic path: the prevention of an all-out war should remain the top priority for all sides.
Difficult as this may look, Ukraine should offer to engage in direct talks with Moscow, together with countries such as France, Germany and the US, to find a last-minute solution.
Compromises will have to be made by everyone, even if this means Ukraine considering giving autonomy to all the Russian-speaking areas of the country and suspending its request to join NATO – Moscow’s key demand – in return for strict international guarantees, endorsed by the UN, of Kyiv’s independence and territorial integrity.
A diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian crisis may take months, even years, to be reached but the priority now is to de-escalate a very volatile situation that could lead to the biggest military conflict in Europe since the last war.