China is concerned about its shrinking population. Estimates are that its population is now shrinking by 1.1 per cent per year.
Last year, China clamped down on abortion for “non-medical” reasons and, five days ago, its government decided to discourage abortions and take steps to make fertility treatment more accessible as part of efforts to boost one of the world’s lowest birth rates.
China’s total fertility rate is 1.7 births per woman, which is low. But not compared to Malta’s. Malta had a rate of 1.68 in 2000 but this has continued to drop and now the rate is down to 1.10, the lowest in the EU. And Malta is the only country without abortion in Europe, so the rates compared to other EU countries and China must be even lower.
One other important fact is that Europe’s fertility statistics show that over 30 per cent of births in Malta in 2020 were to foreign-born mothers. Statistics for 2021 show that 20 per cent of Maltese residents, or 103,718 people, were foreigners.
This means that, for foreign mothers, the fertility rate is 50 per cent higher than for Maltese mothers. This also means that, for the Maltese, the fertility rate is even lower than 1.10.
The Chinese are worrying about their decline in population even though their population is now 1.4 billion. The number of Maltese in Malta is about 400,000 but the total population is inflated by foreign workers.
A recent article by Vollset et al in the Lancet predicts that Europe will reach peak population next year, 2023. It predicts that once population decline begins it will probably continue inexorably.
The rate of births per woman is down to 1.10, the lowest in the EU
This could well mean that the numbers of Maltese in Malta is already in decline but this is hidden because of immigrants.
Compared with China, Malta is minuscule. The point at which Maltese society could effectively become a minority is much closer for us than China.
What we need to do is to encourage births in Malta. Hungary (fertility rate 1.55) and Poland (1.44) both have fertility rates higher than Malta and both have put in robust programmes to increase fertility.
If you have four or more babies in Hungary you’ll pay no income tax for life.
In Poland, a parental care incentive is being introduced (€2,640), which parents will be entitled to collect for second and further children between the age of 12 and 36 months.
These are other EU incentive programmes (fertility rates in brackets):
Estonia (1.61): the larger the family the more money they receive. Year-long paid maternity leave. Finland, Lestijärvi (1.35): “Baby bonus” of €10,000 for each baby born. Greece (1.34): €2,000 for the birth of every child. Italy (1.27): Baby bonus of between €960 and €1,920 for every child born to households with income that is lower than €7,000.
The demographic state of Maltese in Malta is drastic compared to all the other countries introducing incentives.
Added to this, Malta is debating the introduction of abortion. Abortion would even further reduce the small number of babies available to keep the Maltese identity alive. It should be totally out of the question from a demographic point of view, as well as from a moral point of view. Wanting to introduce abortion is tantamount to plotting the eclipse of our unique culture.
The government urgently needs to tackle the demographic time bomb that is insidiously threatening our very survival.
If the same rate of population decrease as is being seen in China occurs in Malta, we could see a reduction of the Maltese indigenous population to 277,000 by 2050.
Our fertility rate is 35 per cent lower than China’s, however, which means our population decline could even be faster.
The minimal viable population is said to be 4,169 persons.
However, with large numbers of immigrants, as there are now, the Maltese population could easily be socially overwhelmed within the life spans of young people alive today unless, like other EU countries, serious measures are taken.
Patrick Pullicino is a practising consultant neurologist, East Kent NHS.