I have been following the concerns of the wider community regarding recent seismic events and the potential risks associated with earthquakes locally.
Many have expressed their anxieties about the safety of their homes and families and the need for increased preparedness and mitigation measures. It is my hope that this article will encourage renewed attention and action to address this important issue.
Twenty years ago, I contributed to an article in this newspaper highlighting the concerns regarding local seismic activity occurring then. Unfortunately, it seems that we are still in a very similar position today, though, at least, some new infrastructure and most major developments seem to have requirements calling for some level of seismic design to be included.
However, contrary to common belief, it is the lower height building stock which is most at risk during an earthquake; it is the typical five-storey type housing stock that will bear the brunt and not most high-rise buildings which, typically, are inherently designed to be more resilient. This has to do with both the physics of the seismic event and also the socio-economic realities, as corroborated by recent building failures on the island.
It is a common misconception that just because a major earthquake has not occurred in one’s lifetime there is no risk of one actually occurring in the future.
Earthquakes are a complex and unpredictable phenomenon and it is currently not possible to predict when or where they will occur. They usually happen in the same geographical location but, fortunately, over very long periods of time.
Therefore, it is important to be aware of the potential risks and to take the necessary steps to reduce the impact of an earthquake, regardless of the length of time since the last major one occurred.
In fact, this false sense of security can be dangerous as it can lead people to neglect the necessary precautions and preparations.
The very fact of the frequent nature of smaller events locally is proof enough that, at some point, a major event will hit the islands. This has happened at various times in the past.
The key aspect for Malta as a country is the severity of the impact from even a moderate-sized event occurring close by, which can be nationally significant if not devastating, including widespread damage, disruption to essential services and potentially even significant loss of life. This is why it is crucial for us to take the initiative in preparing for the potential effects of an earthquake, even if the likelihood of one occurring seems low in our daily lives.
The main defence against the impact of earthquakes is to enact and enforce suitable building codes.
By ensuring that buildings and infrastructure are constructed to meet the latest seismic standards, one can significantly reduce the potential for damage and loss of life in the event of an earthquake.
Contrary to common belief, it is the lower height building stock which is most at risk during an earthquake- Frederick Ellul
Enforcing these codes through regular inspections and compliance monitoring is key to ensuring that our buildings and infrastructure are safe and that we are prepared.
Recent studies have shown that the construction cost premiums associated with meeting modern codes and standards for earthquake resistance are small, generally no more than 12 per cent or less over what is currently required for non-seismic design.
The benefits associated with improved seismic design, whether measured qualitatively or quantitatively, are constantly shown to be significant.
There are several main steps that can be undertaken nationally to mitigate against earthquake hazard.
1 – Risk assessment: conduct a comprehensive risk assessment of the country to identify areas that are particularly vulnerable to earthquakes and prioritise mitigation efforts. A minimum national hazard level should be rolled out immediately and refined once more data is available.
2 – Building codes and standards: develop and enforce strict building codes and standards that ensure all new buildings are designed and constructed to meet a minimum level of seismic resistance. Our adoption of the Eurocodes provides an easy win here, with all that is missing being the definition of what is the minimum size of event to be designed for.
3 – Retrofitting of existing buildings: develop programmes to retrofit existing buildings to improve their seismic resistance, with a focus on critical infrastructure and public buildings that are vulnerable to damage in an earthquake.
4 – Public education and awareness: raise public awareness about earthquake hazards and provide education on how to prepare for and respond to earthquakes. This will enable the public to, at least, ask what may happen to where one lives in the event of one and the insurance industry will then be mobilised.
5 – Emergency management and response planning: develop and implement comprehensive emergency management plans that include effective response and recovery measures in the event of an earthquake.
It is important to note that a comprehensive approach that involves all levels of government, the private sector and the public is necessary to effectively mitigate against earthquake hazards.
The recent seismic events both locally and globally have brought these concerns to the forefront once again and emphasised the need for continued efforts to reduce the impact of an earthquake and ensure the safety of our community.
By enacting and enforcing building codes, having emergency plans in place and our public protection agencies regularly conducting earthquake drills, we can reduce the impact of such a scenario and ensure that we are better equipped to respond effectively in the event of one.
Frederick Ellul is a chartered structural engineer with 30 years of experience. He specialises in the design of earthquake resistant constructions and has worked in Europe, Australia and the Middle East.