A month into Russia’s savage and brutal invasion of Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is nowhere close to the swift victory he was expecting. Thanks to the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians and several blunders and miscalculations by Moscow, Russian forces are making few advances and control only one of Ukraine’s main cities.
However, this status quo has come at a huge price for the Ukrainians as Russia’s military has unleashed a vicious bombardment of the country’s infrastructure and civilian targets, including hospitals and schools. There can be no doubt that war crimes have been committed by Russia and those responsible for such atrocities will one day have to be held accountable.
The siege of Mariupol, for example, has been particularly brutal, and reflects a cruel Russian military doctrine which was used in both Chechnya and Syria: cut off the target from outside help, bombard it relentlessly and starve the population, thus making life for civilians unbearable – with the aim of getting the city to surrender.
The response so far by both NATO and the EU, as well as the blocs’ allies, has been swift and commendable, and the West has put up an incredibly united front, something Putin was not expecting. Billions of euros in humanitarian and military aid have been committed to Ukraine, the harshest economic sanctions ever have been imposed on Moscow, and NATO’s eastern flank in
Europe has been fortified. And Ukrainian refugees are being welcomed with open arms by Europe and the US.
As the war drags on, it is crucial that while NATO continues to avoid getting directly involved in this conflict – a confrontation with Russia is in nobody’s interest and will not help Ukraine – pressure must be continuously exerted on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire and to reach a deal with Ukraine to end this conflict.
The response so far by both NATO and the EU, as well as the blocs’ allies, has been swift and commendable
So far, negotiations between the two sides have not progressed much – even though Ukraine is not seeking NATO membership and is prepared to be flexible on the question of Crimea and the Donbas region. Ukraine has also said it willing to be militarily neutral, as long as a number of friendly countries provide security guarantees.
Such a position is certainly a basis for a deal, which suggests that Russia could be just playing for time and pretending to negotiate.
If this is the case, the West must have a strategy in place to deal with the situation getting considerably worse. What will happen if the Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilians continue indefinitely? Or if Moscow uses chemical, biological or nuclear weapons? Or if other non-NATO countries are attacked, such as Georgia or Moldova?
In the meantime, any country with considerable influence over Russia should make a determined effort to convince Moscow to end this absurd war. Mediation efforts by Israel and Turkey are certainly welcome, but what about China and India, who are close to Russia and who have so far refused to condemn this brutal invasion?
This war, if allowed to escalate, will affect everyone – the Russian invasion has already led to a surge in inflation and threatens hunger, even starvation, for millions of people in the developing world – Russia and Ukraine account for roughly 30 per cent of global exports of wheat and barley.
Finally, while Ukraine is winning the information war hands-down in most of the world, this is obviously not the case in Russia where most of the media is controlled by the Kremlin. The challenge for the West is to use its creativity and ingenuity to counter Moscow’s toxic state propaganda and try to convey the truth to the Russian people about this unnecessary and cruel war.