Vladimir Putin’s illegal war on Ukraine is a catastrophe for its people and a tragedy for the world order.
As the invasion enters its second week, the minds of leaders of the democratic world are preoccupied with questions of enormous short-term consequences: how to help the valiant Ukrainian people fight back and survive the onslaught; how to assist Ukrainians streaming across EU borders in search of safe refuge; how to prevent the war from escalating into a wider conflagration... how to offer a face-saving way out to the all-powerful leader of a nuclear-armed Russia.
In the assessment of some experts, Russia has failed in its objective of quickly toppling the Ukrainian government, installing a puppet regime and wiping Ukraine off the face of the political map. Putin seems to have underestimated the fierce resistance of the Ukrainians and overestimated his army’s capability of overrunning their country. The fear is that he will now order his forces to wipe Ukrainian cities off the face of the earth. That’s what ruthless despots do.
The better news is that the outrage at Russia’s action has reached a truly global scale. This is reflected in the concerted and unprecedented economic measures taken against Russia by the US, the EU and their allies.
The only way to prevent war is to limit the power of nation states to wage it by establishing supranational forms of governance
This chorus of disapproval was also seen in Wednesday’s UN General Assembly resolution, passed overwhelmingly, to deplore Russia’s aggression and demand that it immediately withdraw all its troops from Ukraine.
The world is united in its shock and revulsion at the brazen, barbaric and baseless attack on Ukraine and on the established values of the democratic world. Putin has assaulted the very foundations of western civilisation: peace among nations, cooperative progress, rule of law, individual freedom, respect for human rights, protection of human life.
The speeches made at the European Parliament and the UN General Assembly in the past days were filled with calls to safeguard such values against a return to might is right.
Putin has been judged by the world and convicted of a heinous, ongoing crime. So far, all the sanctions and all the speeches and resolutions have not made a dent in his intention to eradicate Ukraine as an independent nation.
The relative peace in Europe of the last 75 years has made us complacent. After this war is over, hopefully before it spreads, the world will again face the fundamental question, even more urgent in this nuclear age: how to prevent it from happening again.
One way is to create international mechanisms, far more effective than the UN, that would deter countries from resorting to violence to resolve their differences. Supranational bodies would have the power to impose crippling punishment (think devastating sanctions) on countries that cross the line. But even this is not enough to deter superpowers. The question then becomes how to move beyond the age of absolute national sovereignty, which lies behind most wars.
After World War II, European nations managed to build a lasting peace by surrendering some aspects of their sovereignty into the hands of collectively managed institutions. Before the Europeans, the now united states of America achieved something similar.
The only way to prevent war is to limit the power of nation states to wage it by establishing supranational forms of governance across the globe, whose principal role would be to protect citizens from warmongers.
It may take generations to achieve but only when the world progresses to this point will peace have a chance of permanency. The global response to Russian aggression gives hope that this is not an impossible dream.