Judging by the latest Times of Malta opinion poll, if an election were to be held tomorrow, the Nationalist Party has a negligible chance of being returned to power.
The gap between the two parties stood at less than nine percentage points. This means if the 24.8 per cent of respondents who did not declare their preference or are still unsure, combined with the 19 per cent who said they will not vote, were to either change their minds or vote blue, the balance could tip in favour of the PN.
Tall order.
A poll in It-Torċa last Sunday put the gap between the two parties even wider, with Labour slated to increase its majority. It is almost a foregone conclusion that Labour will comfortably win the upcoming election. Given the scandals surrounding Labour, one would logically expect it to suffer enormously at the polls but that was the belief at the last election too.
Since then, Daphne Caruana Galizia was assassinated, the culture-of-impunity indictment had not yet been issued and the hugely popular Joseph Muscat is now facing the most serious accusations in a generation. His successor Robert Abela cannot take things for granted though.
He is under pressure to right the wrongs committed post-2013 but, at the same time, he needs the backing of popular Labour politicians who were in cabinet when those very wrongs were being committed and have now been declared partly responsible for the atmosphere of impunity that led to the murder.
To take his reforms further, Abela needs those long-time colleagues to attract enough votes to prove he is as formidable a leader as his predecessor. His counterpart on the other side of the political divide faces an even more daunting task.
The ‘has-beens’ that bog down his party continue to stick around. Bernard Grech too needs their support. For this reason, and also out of loyalty and to avoid internal friction so close to an election, he is unlikely to elbow them out. Though the writing on the wall is so clear, they still fail or refuse to realise it, put patria before self and leave, to give the party a chance to avoid another landslide defeat.
When Grech was elected leader last October, he saved the party from implosion, which was threatened by the huge divide that existed between the faction that supported his predecessor Adrian Delia and those against him.
Grech has brought a measure of calm and cohesion to the party and has been working quietly to introduce new, younger blood with fresher ideas. The PN is becoming a little more assertive and concrete in its proposals. It appears to have settled down enough to finally be coming up with some bold ideas.
The ‘competition of ideas’ should, after all, be the main battleground on which the election is fought, along with the credibility of the country’s potential leaders. Will the PN’s proposals be enough to make inroads among the electorate? Probably not. The Labour government enjoys the power of incumbency and many would clearly opt for ‘continuity’, or dare we say, the devil they know.
The Abela government should also be credited for the swift and bold response which helped mitigate the impact of the pandemic, despite the spiralling debt, which undoubtedly will hit home soon. Still, Grech must ensure his party keeps putting forward attractive and realistic proposals. Does Grech have enough character and credibility for those ideas to leave a mark on people’s imagination?
The polls are showing that the message is not really coming across or else many remain unwilling to listen to a party that they have all but ruled out as an alternative government.