Donald Trump’s outrageous threat that he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” if NATO members failed to meet the alliance’s two per cent of GDP spending target on defence has raised alarm bells in European capitals.
Trump isn’t even yet the Republican presidential nominee and the US election is months away, yet, he has already started to undermine NATO and European security.
NATO’s promise of mutual defence rests precisely on the belief that it will be upheld and there is no doubt that the alliance’s unity has played a crucial role in maintaining peace and stability in Europe throughout the post-war period.
Trump’s reckless comments must have been music to the ears of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the man who started Europe’s most devastating war since 1945 when he invaded Ukraine. The presumed Republican candidate, as always, a bully, has damaged NATO’s credibility and played straight into Putin’s hands.
Nobody knows whether Trump will win November’s election but Europe must prepare for the worst and start to boost its own defence and security capabilities without having to rely on the US in the event of a war.
Even if Trump does not win the election, there is no denying the fact that the Republican Party is growing more isolationist and inward looking – as evidenced by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives’ disgraceful refusal to consider passing an aid package for Ukraine.
A NATO without the US or with limited American involvement would, of course, greatly weaken Europe’s security, which is why European countries, both EU and non-EU, must immediately start spending more on defence and work towards a common European defence platform.
European Parliament president Roberta Metsola was right when she said, soon after Trump’s NATO comments, that the EU should spend more on defence and not rely on the US. In an interview with Politico, Metsola said the EU also needs to set up a defence budget.
“It must be ready to shoulder the responsibility if necessary and be ready for any eventuality,” she said, adding: “Europe cannot waver, when we see what could happen across the Atlantic.”
Throughout the Cold War and up until today the US has played a major role in maintaining peace in Europe.
And US President Joe Biden, in particular, deserves credit for his strong commitment to the transatlantic partnership, which has been the backbone of European security and defence for the past 75 years. However, in view of the worrying foreign policy shift in certain political circles in the US – epitomised by Trump’s recent comments – the time has come for a new security arrangement in Europe. Times have sadly changed, and whether we like it or not, EU must strengthen its defence pillar in the event of less commitment from Washington. A new security set-up would see a number of non-EU NATO members such as the UK and Turkey play a key role in Europe’s defence umbrella, perhaps within the framework of the European Political Community.
A formula would have to be found to incorporate neutral EU countries such as Malta, Ireland and Austria. And the time is right for a discussion on whether the UK’s and France’s nuclear deterrent can be put at the disposal of a new European defence and security arrangement.
Europe now has to think the unthinkable, namely that it might soon not be able to rely on the US for its security. The world today is not what it was a decade ago, and with wars wreaking havoc in Ukraine and the Middle East, amid the rise of the extreme right, we cannot take anything for granted.
Boosting defence spending does not mean Europe is going to war with Russia. It means Europe must be in a position to deter Russian aggression and to be able to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength in any future security order.