Today marks the first anniversary of the brutal, illegal and unprovoked Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The war has killed tens of thousands, created millions of refugees, plunged Europe into its worst security crisis since World War II, caused turmoil in the energy markets and a global spike in inflation, and led to large chunks of Ukrainian territory being occupied by Russia.
There is clear evidence of war crimes being committed by the Russian military, including the deliberate targeting of civilians, schools, hospitals and Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as well as the use of torture and executions in areas under its control.
It is also very evident, however, that President Vladimir Putin’s strategy did not go according to plan. Ukraine has survived as a sovereign state, Kyiv did not fall to the Russians, the West is more united than ever, Finland and Sweden have applied to join NATO, and billions have poured into Ukraine in military and economic aid. Furthermore, Ukraine, under Volodymyr Zelensky, has shown remarkable bravery and resilience in resisting the invasion.
Both NATO and the European Union have remained resolute and united in dealing with this war.
Although the conflict has entered a stalemate phase, Putin has shown no signs of wanting to negotiate, even though his country has been impoverished and slapped with the harshest set of economic sanctions by Western nations.
On the contrary, on Tuesday Putin made a volatile international situation even more dangerous by suspending Moscow’s participation in the New START treaty – the last major US-Russia arms control pact still in force.
One of the problems in the conflict is that the Russian government has continuously lied – claiming Moscow’s military operations are aimed at purging Ukraine of “Nazis”, denying the atrocities carried out in Ukrainian territory under its control and blaming the West for this war.
Dealing with such a dangerous regime will make any negotiation difficult, although the Kremlin’s falsehoods are aimed mainly at a domestic audience, which so far has been controlled by the state media and a brutal crackdown on the slightest form of dissent.
Is there any hope for a resolution to this war? Putin will negotiate if he realises he has no chance of winning and Ukraine will talk when it feels it is in a strong enough position to negotiate. Which means support for Kyiv must continue to help it regain as much of its territory as is reasonably possible.
A long drawn-out war is of course in nobody’s interest, and only increases the potential for escalation and a direct conflict between two nuclear-armed blocs – NATO and Russia. This must be avoided at all costs.
It is important, therefore, that some form of back-channel negotiations be held between Moscow and the West. Any form of international mediation by third parties is also important.
Countries which have some influence over Moscow, such as China – whose behaviour so far has been disappointing – should stand up and be counted. China could shift to the right side of history if it tries to put pressure on Putin to stop the aggression.
The West, however, must make it abundantly clear that it does not seek regime change in Russia, nor does it seek to destroy the country or humiliate the Kremlin. The goal should be security guarantees for both Russia and Ukraine. Too much is at stake by letting this war drag on indefinitely.
One year on since Putin started the war, there is a good reason why many analysts compare his tactics to Adolf Hitler’s. The history books will treat him with the same disdain.