Two English language schools have already felt the pinch of COVID-19 and folded, while the federation that represents another 20 maintains October will be the defining moment for their future after they test the waters this summer.
The English Language Teaching industry is seeing only 9% of student arrivals compared to the same period last year.
Schools have estimated minimal improvements in the coming weeks, with a possible rise to 10% at most.
The industry is based on a solid 10 weeks between the end of June and mid-August, peaking this week and next before a slowdown starts, said James Perry, CEO of the Federation of English Language Teaching Organisations Malta (Feltom), which represents 85% of the market.
The first classes started two weeks ago, with students trickling in.
According to National Statistics Office figures, 9,800 students arrived in June last year – a period that was “completely missed” this time round with the closure of the airport.
July welcomed about 18,400 in 2019 but a maximum of 1,800 will arrive this July, while last August welcomed 8,800 students and only a tenth of that number are expected next month.
ELT also survives on third-country nationals, who tend to stay longer and stabilise the industry, said Perry. Brazil, in fact, is the second-largest contributor when it comes to bed nights, occupying 19,000 a year.
“We are not suggesting we should open up to these countries but this is the situation,” he said.
Not all the 20 Feltom schools decided to open on July 1, said Perry. Five have opted for later openings or are still unsure when to resume operations. The two that closed down were not among the federation’s members.
Perry said Feltom has been assisting its members during the crisis through the sharing of ideas and ways to operate to ensure some survival.
But once the government wage supplement they have been receiving stops in September, he fears that without a survival package for specific industries, based on the outcomes since the airports opened, there could be layoffs and shutdowns.
“The proof is in the pudding, and come September, when the funding stops, if the numbers are not there, we can have closures and redundancies,” Perry warned.
Feltom schools have more than 600 employees, with an average monthly salary cost of €1.2 million. They have had 60,000 cancellations due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“Summer is our peak – the cash cow, if you will... when the money comes in and can be stocked up for the winter months ahead,” he said.
“And that is not happening.”