Italians vote later this month and the opinion polls are pointing to a victory for the alliance made up of right-wing and centre-right parties.
The election was called after the collapse of the government headed by the widely respected Mario Draghi, who is credited with steering Italy through a post-pandemic recovery.
Italy is a leading member of the European Union, the eurozone and NATO, and has very close relations with Malta. Who governs the country is of great importance to the rest of Europe, to its friends and allies across the world and to us in Malta.
Italians are faced with a large choice of blocs or individual parties to vote for. The right-leaning bloc consists of Brothers of Italy, the League, Forza Italia and the more centrist Us Moderates.
The centre-left bloc consists of the Democratic Party, Civic Commitment (which splintered off from the 5-Star Movement), the Green Left Alliance and More Europe.
A new centrist alliance consisting of the Italia Viva and Action parties is also running, distancing itself from the two main electoral blocs of left and right. The 5-Star Movement, on the other hand, once the rising star of Italian politics, is contesting on its own.
There has been some concern both inside and outside Italy at what direction Italy might take in the event of a victory by the right: Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni – who is likely to become prime minister – has neo-fascist roots, while the League, led by the anti-immigration Matteo Salvini, tends to espouse right-wing populism and euroscepticism and has links to Vladimir Putin.
Meloni, however, has stressed that her party has long dissociated itself from fascism, and the right’s electoral programme promises support for NATO and Ukraine as well as “full adherence to the European integration process”. It reaffirmed that Italy is “fully part of Europe, the Atlantic alliance and the West”.
Meloni’s affirmation is welcome and one hopes it is adhered to if her bloc wins power. The right-wing alliance has also called for lower taxes, increased social benefits, a “review” of EU rules on public spending as well as the setting up of EU processing centres outside the EU for asylum applications.
The two latter proposals could prove controversial, as could the prospect of changing the reform plan already agreed with the EU in return for almost €200 billion in post-pandemic funds, which the right has suggested.
The centre-left alliance, on the other hand, led by Enrico Letta, the Democratic Party leader, has stressed its pro-European credentials, its commitment to social justice, a fairer taxation system, and a continuation of many of Draghi’s policies.
Although the Democratic Party on its own could well end up with slightly more votes than Brothers of Italy, the centre-left bloc is trailing the right-wing alliance by quite a large margin, making it almost impossible for Letta’s bloc to catch up.
One of the reasons was the small Action party’s decision to leave the centre-left bloc and join with Matteo Renzi’s Italy Viva party, plunging the centre-left into disarray. The right, on the other hand, has portrayed a more united front.
There is evident concern across Europe concern about the implications of a right-wing victory in Italy, especially because of its anti-migrant rhetoric and since it could reinvigorate more extreme factions in countries like Hungary and Poland.
We can only hope that leaders like Meloni and Salvini will understand more than ever the potential repercussions of extremist statements and policies in a world reeling in a pandemic and the Ukraine war.