Politics: New political party and the PN’s quest to remain relevant

George Vital Zammit, academic and public lecturer

Politically speaking, 2023 is a buffer year. It succeeds the year of a general election and precedes the European and local council elections of 2024. But it will be filled with politics as parties ramp up their campaigns, but also start adjusting where necessary.

The year 2022 has ended in a ‘bruisy’ manner. The amendment to the criminal code has polarised factions, with politics obfuscating rather than illuminating the debate. The pro-choice movement has now earned momentum, and irrespective of the text that will ultimately be legislated, the debate will carry on. Suppressing it will be futile: society today has evolved and is able, independently of parties, to catalyse themes it deems fit to prioritise. They can be slowed, but not stopped.

The invalid/absentee vote of the March 2024 elections is likely to indicate that a portion of the population no longer holds political parties as a point of reference. An emerging part of the electorate is likely to hold preferences that are not aligned with mainstream parties.

This leads me to think that 2023 might point to a redefinition of political space, or rather, a wider segmentation of political ideas that could lead to the establishment of additional political parties. Fatigue (and disenchantment) from mainstream behaviour and demagoguery could trigger the creation of a political party that would launch a new political project (perhaps to be tested in the 2024 European elections).

In the first quarter of 2023, I expect the institutional deadlock to be broken in terms of the new Ombudsman and Standards Commissioner. Changing the law to appoint the latter would be regrettable. The absence of an agreement would not bode well, in light of talks that will have to be initiated on the successor of President George Vella, whose appointment will require a two-thirds majority in parliament.

Speculation will become rife on the first movements in government benches. Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne’s future will be highly talked about, but the Prime Minister might bestow more responsibilities to the female backbench, as some of them will be eyed for possible promotion to the Cabinet.

The PN will have another challenging year. Relevance, acceptance, impact, credibility and unity remain important quests, as every effort will need to be made to stop the haemorrhage and win back minds and souls. The PN has suffered too many losses in the past decade. The pressure to start reversing that trend will fall on the leader, and failure will, inevitably, throw him into the line of fire.

A tightrope walk for economics

Marie Briguglio, academic and economist

Economics is all about trade-offs and 2023 will be an interesting year to witness these in action.

First: to deal with inflation, government, may need to pull some economic breaks. Tackling inflation typically involves raising interest rates among other measures to slow down the economy. But the challenge will be how to do this without causing a recession.

Second: rising interest rates will see us coming out of the era of ‘cheap money’ and this means savings in banks will earn a little more. But it also means loans will be more expensive, not just for households taking loans, but also for businesses and government debt.

Third: to deal with rising energy costs, the government has subsidised fuel. But sustaining this subsidy harms public sector funds and diverts funds from other needs like health and infrastructure. Removing it will create more upward pressure on prices.

Fourth: to deal with labour shortages, Malta has embarked on a drive to attract foreign workers. But this has caused downward pressure on wages, which in turn, causes hardship among low-income earners (including foreign workers themselves).

Fifth: to keep the construction sector buoyant, several budgetary measures have assisted the industry over time. But over-supply and environmental degradation may start to threaten the payback on the investment itself.

Sixth: for the transport sector, we have embarked on increasing road supply but 2023 may well be the year when we start thinking about reversing car dependence and encouraging people to walk. With so much of our infrastructure budget invested in vehicles, this will not be easy.

Seventh: other pressing issues will continue to demand economic attention. The need to battle climate (point three), improve the performance of the judicial system and enforcement, need to balance material and non-material well-being, reduce inequalities, the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine and dealing with other unforeseen shocks.

All in all, economics in 2023 will be a tightrope walk.

Women’s issues:  Violence against women will continue

Marceline Naudi, academic and lecturer

It is a pity this is about predictions rather than wishes.

This year we have had three femicides – and as I have often said, violence against women is a continuum, ending in femicide. So, although I would wish to be able to say “no more violence against women”, what I will say is that 2023 will see the continuance of violence against women, with possible femicide/s.

I would like to say that there would be the required investment in resources and capacity building and in changing mindsets. But I will have to say instead that, as has happened before, probably nothing much will change. The media will move on to other ‘news’ and violence against women and femicide will be put on the backburner again, until the next one.

I would also like to say there would be a mature discussion on decriminalising abortion, that is not politicised by the two main political parties, and that will lead us to progress in this matter too. But I would have to say instead… get my drift?

And in the meantime, even as I write this, women all over Malta are feeling desperate and hopeless, especially in contrast to the ‘happy holidays’ season. I would like to be able to say that I predict that women’s human rights will be acknowledged and respected in 2023. But really, I can’t see it.

Acquisition of some rights may improve slightly (hopefully) but with the patriarchy’s strong hold on our society, with the gender role stereotypes still subtly holding on, and with the backlash against women and LGBTIQ+ that we have seen recently, really much though I would wish much more, I doubt we will get much more… I do so wish that I got this all wrong. Here’s hoping…

Construction and environment: plus ça change

Alex Torpiano, architect, academic and President of Din L-Art Ħelwa

My prediction for the construction industry in Malta in 2023 would (cynically, but sadly, realistically) be plus ça change.

More than a prediction, I would like to propose a vision for our construction industry.

I would like to see operatives working on site to be properly trained to undertake the often-dangerous tasks they are required to undertake; where the site supervisors in charge of them would be fully aware of the risks on site and ensure that these risks are mitigated; where the professional designers conceiving the projects fully understand that their role includes that of ensuring that their designs can be realised safely.

I would like to see the construction industry more widely adopting construction technologies by which more operations can be done off-site, of better quality and with a higher level of safety and control and less waste; where the site environment, during and after construction, is clean and without inconvenience to neighbouring properties, especially where the regulatory authorities understand that their role is not simply one of collating documentation, but of really creating an environment where construction can be undertaken safely, and to the highest quality, and where developers do not perceive regulatory processes as bureaucracy which they can lobby government to alleviate.

There is then our impact on our ‘natural’ environment. Climate change is certainly the biggest challenge we face and must adapt to, and my pious hope would be that the country finally decides to take serious action to adopt the threats to our water resources, to the quality of our soils, and hence to biodiversity, and our agricultural resources. My hope would be that rather than promise the myth of eternal economic growth, our governments would start to talk about sustainable growth, within the limits of the capacity of our island.

Migration: ‘Hope that charges on El Hiblu 3 will be dropped’

Maria Pisani, academic, human rights activist

Some of the key issues that will continue to take centre stage include the nation’s dependence on migrants for their labour, the weaponisation of the asylum and reception system and ongoing violations of refugees and their basic human rights within and beyond our border, including illegal detention, child detention and violation of international human rights law at sea.

We will also see how Malta’s ongoing migration diplomacy and the ongoing tango (to dance, or not to dance?) with Italy’s new prime minister Giorgia Meloni pans out.

I expect the emigration of Maltese young people to gain traction in 2023, and perhaps the conversation around sex work, migration and trafficking will also continue.

Malta’s economy and broader social security depends on migrants. Responding to our invitation, thousands of migrants have made Malta their home – and thousands leave – continuing to pose an ongoing challenge to Maltese employers.

As long as the presence of migrants in Malta is deemed as utilitarian and temporary (at best), and the demand for cheap (often racialised) precarious labour continues, migrants will continue to leave our shores, with devastating effects on the broader population.

The well-being of the nation depends on the well-being of all. If migrants continue to feel unwelcome, then community relations will continue to disintegrate, marked by distrust, poverty and broader inequalities.

Perhaps 2023 will be the year the government acknowledges this reality and enacts an integration policy that promises meaningful and long-term inclusion, including broader political participation and access to citizenship, and that the anti-racism strategy will be implemented with sincerity and commitment.

Will we see an end to child detention and the broader abuse of asylum seekers within the reception system? I live in hope. And perhaps on this note, I trust that the charges against the El Hiblu 3 will be dropped and that these three young men might finally see the justice they deserve and need.