Germany’s federal election saw a shift to the two main centre-left parties, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens, with the SPD gaining a slim relative majority of votes. On the other hand, it was a disappointing performance for the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), who suffered their worst ever result, even though outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel remains immensely popular.
What is very evident is that Germans remain firmly committed to centrist pro-European parties, which is good news. In fact, the fringe parties on the left and right saw their share of the vote shrink – the far-right AFD lost two per cent and the Left party saw its share cut in half – falling below the five per cent threshold for parliamentary representation, although they will still have some MPs through direct constituencies elections.
The SPD’s chancellor candidate, party leader Olaf Scholz, is now in a leading position to head the next government, if he can form a coalition with other parties. Scholz, finance minister in the outgoing ‘grand coalition’ between the CDU/CSU and the SPD, says it is now time for a new coalition with the Greens and Liberals. He deserves credit for the performance of his party, which, only two years ago, was languishing in the polls at 11 per cent.
The percentage breakdown of the popular vote in Germany’s election is as follows: SPD, 25.7; CDU/CSU, 24.1; Greens, 14.8; FDP (Liberals) 11.5; AFD (far-right) 10.3; Left, 4.9 and others 8.7. The SPD will now have the largest number of seats and a three-party coalition looks like the most probable outcome. The result also shows what some observers have termed the ‘Dutchification’ of the German party system – where the vote is more evenly spread among a number of parties – pointing to a decline of the dominance of the CDU/CSU and the SPD.
The poll saw a five per cent increase for both the SPD and the Greens, who got their best-ever result, and an eight per cent decrease for the Christian Democrats.
The Christian Democrats’ chancellor candidate, CDU leader Armin Laschet, was always going to have an uphill struggle considering that the incumbent chancellor, Merkel, was no longer running after 16 years at the helm in Berlin. Laschet was also gaffe-prone and was considered too much as the ‘continuity’ candidate at a time when Germans wanted some form of change.
While the last 16 years under Merkel were good for Germany (and Europe), many Germans wanted new ideas on issues such as the infrastructure, pension reform, the minimum wage, affordable housing and climate change. Scholz stressed these issues throughout the campaign and managed to portray himself as the natural successor to Merkel, in the sense of being a calm, competent manager and a ‘safe pair of hands’. Furthermore, alleged corruption over COVID mask procurement contracts linked to some CDU/CSU politicians did not help the centre-right bloc.
Olaf Scholz managed to portray himself as the natural successor to Angela Merkel- Anthony Manduca
Coalition talks are likely to take weeks if not months and, in the meantime, Merkel will remain Germany’s chancellor. She will without doubt go down in history as a great German chancellor alongside other German political giants such as Konrad Adenauer, Willy Brandt, Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl. She was widely respected at home and abroad, she presided over a strong economy, refused to go down the populist route, had solid democratic values and was instrumental in keeping the European Union together as it faced a number of challenges.
Germany is used to coalition governments and it will be interesting to see how much common ground can be reached between the Social Democrats and Greens (who are natural allies) and the pro-business low-tax free market Liberals (FDP). If successful, this will be the first time that Germany will have a three-party coalition at the national level.
What if talks to form the so-called traffic-light coalition – made up of the parties’ colours – red (SPD), yellow (FDP) and the Greens –fail? There is an alternative – the Jamaica coalition – black (CDU/CSU), yellow (FDP) and the Greens. The CDU/CSU ended up only two percentage points behind the SPD and could form a very comfortable coalition with the Greens and the FDP. The FDP, after all, have a lot in common with the Christian Democrats, so we will have to wait and see.
The fact that the Social Democrats won the largest share of the vote does not entitle them to govern, although they have a strong case in arguing that there was a swing away from the CDU/CSU towards the SPD and Greens and also marginally towards the FDP. It should be pointed out that, in the past, the Christian Democrats were twice sent to the opposition benches despite winning a relative majority of votes – in 1966 and 1976 – because other parties were able and willing to form a coalition government without them.
It is also worth noting that, unlike many other countries, Germany’s president does not call upon a particular chancellor candidate to form a government after an election – irrespective of the result – but it is the parties themselves that are responsible for putting together a parliamentary majority which will then have to be voted on in the Bundestag.
Germany is the European Union’s richest, most important and most powerful country. What will a Scholz government mean for the EU? It will mean continuity, a commitment to the EU’s core democratic values of pluralism, rule of law, multilateralism, the social market economy and solidarity as well as a greater emphasis on tackling climate change and, I have no doubt, continued leadership of the bloc. And that it certainly to be greatly welcomed because without Germany there is no Europe.