The International Energy Agency (IEA) trimmed its global oil demand forecasts on Tuesday as the massive coronavirus pandemic hit to the aviation industry will likely be worse than expected next year.

For this year, total oil demand will fall by 8.8 million barrels per day (mbpd) to 91.2 mbpd, reflecting a marginal downward revision to the estimate given in its last monthly report in November, the IEA said.

For 2021, the IEA said it had cut its oil demand growth estimate by 170,000 bpd to 5.7 mbpd “mainly because of another downgrade for jet fuel/kerosene demand”.

Aviation fuel demand is “not expected to recover quickly, as governments intend to keep in place border closures and travel restrictions until a vaccine is widely available”.

“In 2021, demand for both gasoline and diesel is projected to return to 97-99 per cent of their 2019 levels,” it added.

In 2021, demand for both gasoline and diesel is projected to return to 97-99% of their 2019 levels

The IEA noted that on the supply side, OPEC and allied oil producers, principally Russia, had agreed to slowly increase output earlier this month but all recognised that the market remained fragile and required careful management.