One Friday back in August 2008, television audiences all over the world tuned in across multiple time zones to eagerly watch the spectacular opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games.
It was a perfectly choreographed and executed show designed to put China on display and show the world the spectacular grandeur upon which the country’s legacy was built. It symbolised its emergence as a rising power within the international system and as a viable contender to the hegemony of the United States.
Yet, as the world’s stage was set to witness China’s debutante event, international media stations interrupted their broadcasts to bring their audiences breaking news about the movement of Russian forces into neighbouring Georgia. The events of that August afternoon back in 2008 were significant then and continue to resonate now in the midst of the current crises over the presence of Russian troops at Ukraine’s borders.
In 2008, the international landscape was characterised by a United States that had become frustrated by its overstretch within the international system and was beginning to think about adapting to its relative decline, or to the rise of the rest, that would challenge its longstanding status as the sole remaining superpower.
China was pegged as the next global superpower as it enjoyed economic growth and cultivated political influence to secure its steady rise over the coming decades.
Almost 20 years after the break-up of the Soviet Union, Russia was still struggling to acknowledge its decline within the international system and remained aggrieved by the expansion of NATO into its backyard. Then, as now, Russia saw itself as a great power – despite the territorial and geopolitical changes it underwent – and expected to be treated as such.
Russia’s intervention in Georgia in 2008 was reflective of its frustration with NATO enlargement but also its frustration with the state of play in US-Russian bilateral relations. Its intervention, whether timed intentionally or otherwise, demonstrated that, while the broader systemic threat to the economic and political status of the US comes primarily from China, Russia still retains the ability to challenge and disrupt.
While Russia’s conventional military capabilities have declined, it retains nuclear parity with the US. Over the past decade, it has sought to offset its conventional disadvantages through an emphasis on modernisation and the development of hybrid and unconventional capabilities.
In the meantime, the US appetite for international engagement declined, while its geopolitical outlook pivoted towards Asia.
Subsequent attempts at resets and new starts with Russia wavered, while China and Russia have aligned themselves to provide an alternative power bloc in the absence of the US and its seeming unwillingness to remain the defender of the international liberal order that it had worked so hard to build and to sustain over the past decades.
With its pivot to Asia, concerns emerged across the Atlantic that the US was no longer committed to providing the security umbrella that Europe has for so long relied on. Such concerns became all the more realised when then president Donald Trump appeared to cast further doubt over NATO’s utility.
The crisis should serve as an opportunity for the Europeans to develop an alternative approach towards maintaining European security- Valentina Cassar
Subsequently, France took the opportunity to push for Europe’s strategic autonomy, encouraging EU counterparts to develop more coordinated defence capabilities that would be complementary to their integrated capabilities under NATO – with or without the US.
Fast forward to February 2022: the motivations behind the current developments at Ukraine’s border seem all too familiar. China is once again hosting Olympic games and calmly reminding the world of its status and capabilities. As President Xi Jinping stated on the eve of the winter games’ opening, “the world is turning its eyes to China and China is ready”.
While the US and others have diplomatically boycotted the games due to human rights concerns, Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the opening ceremony and is securing Russia’s strategic partnership as he boasts President Xi’s first in-person meeting with a head of state since the start of the pandemic.
While China displays its role and status via the admittedly more sober winter games, a pivot to Europe is taking place.
As Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity once again hangs in the balance, the US and European partners have been engaged in relentless diplomatic efforts and posturing in order to nudge Russia towards standing down, dialogue and a diplomatic solution.
Russia, meanwhile, continues to accuse the West of escalating tensions rather than diffusing them and validating its concerns over NATO’s expansion into Russia’s backyard spheres of interest.
As has been reiterated by heads of states, diplomats and observers alike, there is far too much at stake for an escalation of tensions to proceed unchecked. Yet, geopolitical histories and concerns have inevitably meant that the US, Russia and their European counterparts continue to view the region through a Cold War-tinted lens. The fact that, after three decades, tensions are still escalating over post-Cold War alignments and security arrangements is indicative that change is long overdue.
The current crisis needs to be managed by those parties involved in order to, first and foremost, ensure Ukraine’s political stability and democratic integrity so that it no longer remains a strategic football that can be prodded for grander geopolitical gains.
Secondly, Russia and the US must revive diplomatic efforts to maintain sustained and strategic dialogue over the vast overlapping concerns they share, not least in arms control.
Finally, the crisis should serve as an opportunity for the Europeans to develop an alternative approach towards maintaining European security.
Valentina Cassar is a senior lecturer in international relations at the University of Malta.