A combination of growing lawlessness and a stretched healthcare system in Libya could increase the number of people arriving in Malta.
That's according to expert Mark Micallef, who leads an observatory specialising in human smuggling and trafficking in North Africa and the Sahel for the think tank Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime.
Speaking on the latest episode of the #TimesTalk podcast, Micallef said: "In the past weeks and months we have seen medical facilities bombed. This is making the situation for migrants worse and more dangerous. You have a lot of migrants who are day labourers, you don't have the funds to sit at home and self-isolate for weeks and ends. They are now in poor housing, unable to access employment and money to sustain themselves."
"In the short-term we don't anticipate there will be a huge change in the number of migrants fleeing Libya, but over the medium-term if it's sustained, yes this might have an impact," he added.
However, the Libya expert was quick to point out that even if Malta does experience a surge in the number of people coming in the coming months, many will choose not to stay here.
"The image of a boatload of migrants coming to Malta is a very powerful image. But there are no equivalent images of migrants leaving Malta going to Europe."
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