Over the years, I have written a lot in the Times of Malta about road safety. I have written of the utility of strategically placed crash barriers to prevent deaths and injuries secondary to roadside obstacles, notably trees and electricity poles. I have written about the fourfold increased risk of injury or death for users of two-wheeled as compared to four-wheeled vehicles, with such risk being even greater when the rider is involved in a solo accident.

I have factually disproved the outright lie that local road death rates are high or are increasing over time. I have questioned interventions to reduce our speed limits, already the lowest in the world, and to introduce other measures without hard evidence and studies of effectiveness. Alas, we are likely making the same mistakes, again.

Although different sources give slightly different figures, I have performed standard statistical calculations based on road fatality data quoted recently by Times of Malta (between 2012 and 2022) as well as data from the National Statistics Office (2001 to 2011).

This allows a calculation of the average annual road deaths in Malta being approximately 15.4 (2000 to 2022), with a standard deviation of 4.17. Any observed rate within 1.96 standard deviations from a mean should be considered to be most likely due to chance. As such, any total of road fatalities in one year ranging between 7.3 and 23.6 should be considered normal.

On that basis, one could reasonably consider last year’s total of 26 road deaths to be above average. Still, that number is neither corrected for population growth nor increasing road vehicle utilisation and, in any case, road death totals in Malta tend to exhibit large annual fluctuations due to the small number effect (since the observed number is, fortunately, so low).

In fact, if one instead looks at road fatalities per 100,000 registered vehicles, the average from 2012 to 2022 (sourced from Times of Malta data) is 4.2, with a standard deviation of 1.40, thus giving an expected range between 1.4 and 6.9 road fatalities per 100K registered cars. That datum for 2022 is six, which is clearly within the range to be expected due to chance variation. Such was also confirmed by data published in the Times.

So, in conclusion, the number of road deaths in 2022 was slightly higher than expected but only if one does not consider the increased number of cars on the road. In fact, the same rate observed in 2022 (six per 100K vehicles) was also observed in 2013 and 2016.

Furthermore, since we know that the rate of road deaths is much higher with two-wheeled vehicles, even in the safest European countries, any analysis which does not correct for vehicle type is dangerously oversimplistic.

 If Malta’s strategy to improve road safety will encourage greater utilisation of two-wheeled vehicles, the natural expectation must be that road deaths will increase dramatically in direct consequence, independently of any punitive measures against car drivers.

For example, in the Netherlands, with exemplary road infrastructure for cyclists, cyclist road deaths still contribute about a third to total road fatalities and have increased dramatically in the last five years.

The obvious effect of the legalisation of recreational cannabis has not been addressed- Jean Karl Soler

Quoting directly from the Statista website: “The bicycle was the most dangerous mode of transportation in 2021, with a total of 207 fatalities. The car came in second place, with 175 victims.”

The contribution of two-wheeled vehicles (motorised or not) to road deaths in Malta has recently risen dramatically, as any casual observer can determine from recent news reports. However, any attempt to blame other road users defies the fact that such is also observed in the safest European countries with the best road infrastructure and the most disciplined drivers.

I am sorry to say that my comments of years ago seem to have been spot on and my predictions continue to be accurate. I wish I was wrong but sound observations based on hard data from reliable sources rarely are.

Does anyone seriously believe that the reported increasing penalisation of drivers for using their mobile phone, having tinted glass, not renewing one’s licence or making a U-turn will significantly address the sharp rise in motorcycle and bicycle accidents? It is hoped that other measures, such as increased fines for trucks overloading or not securing their loads, may have a small beneficial effect. However, it is startling that, arguably, the only measure directly targeting two-wheeled vehicles is the increased fine for not wearing a helmet.

The sooner we stop ignoring the facts, the sooner we will find effective solutions to our problems. The introduction of the licence points penalty system did not reduce road accidents or fatalities in the past, as I warned in advance some years ago. Rinsing and repeating may work with the washing but will it save lives on the road?

I encourage the ministry of transport to consider other measures which have worked in other EU countries, such as separating cyclists from fast-moving traffic. Instead, it seems the opposite strategy is being adopted, with bicycle lanes running on major roads. Rinse, and repeat.

The obvious effect of the recent legalisation of recreational cannabis has not been addressed by the proposed measures. While alcohol impedes motor reflexes and alertness for some hours, cannabis has a stronger effect for up to three days. I have written in the past about the fact that many fatal accidents occur at night. The impact of tiredness on driving performance is well-known but is hardly addressed in educational campaigns. Jaywalking is not addressed at all by the proposals.

I fear that this opinion piece will, as in the past, fall on deaf ears. However, that does not relieve me of my duty to disseminate research evidence every time this topic hits the headlines, useless as such efforts may be.

Jean Karl Soler is a medical doctor and researcher.